Dear CraigD (long time … Asalam alai’kum)
First I apologize for the overused and misused quotation marks—natural fluctuations—should have been italics.
There is a very vague paragraph that you quote. Actually, the news organization, IrishWeather, should never have clumped those words with the rest of the article at all
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Seismologists argue that an increase in detected earthquakes does not necessarily represent an increase in actual earthquakes. The USGS, for example, says improved global communication and enhancements in detection technology have both contributed to higher earthquake numbers being recorded over time.
The problem here is that this paragraph is a stand alone issue unrelated to the article itself. It is IrishWeather that is guilty of this Fallacy of Composition. In this case the issue is time. Very true, as seismologists have steadily increased their monitoring and assessment capabilities they have been able to fine tune, i.e., count most near 100% of that which occurs. Therefore over time, because of the technological learning curve, counting became more accurate and totals increased closer to what was actual. The debate over what to do with all of the painstakingly taken, yet grossly undercounted data from the time of the New Deal through the ‘70s and ‘80s… but eventually one reaches a point where accuracy has improved so much that data collection is precise. Such times are now. We have been at that level for roughly twelve years (hence the reason why the article can’t/isn’t saying anything about times before 2000 because
those numbers are not accurate. No-one is debating about the reliability of readings since 2000.
*Therefore the statistical spike is real, and cannot be dismissed by measuring error. We are also talking about an overnight doubling, and approaching tripling, of discrete events.
Speaking of analysis of Statistics, I need further explanation of your own opinion of whether a more than doubling of occurrence over a 6-month time represents something of statistical significance or not.
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Statistics about a phenomena are not the phenomena! As explained above, these statistics don’t show an increase in the rate of earthquakes. <> Even if these data did indicate an actual increased earthquake rate, they increase beginning in 2003, and peaking in power in 2007.
Actually, I agree. The data at hand is what we have, so it should be what we analyze. The debate whether we
can/can’t use 1999 or before data is irrelevant. What is relevant is the spike in the data. I disagree with your assertions that the data that there were ever a nonsteady-state beginning in 2003. Rather, all of the data, through 2010 seems relatively constant. It’s 2011 that’s the anomaly and if they repeat in the 2nd half of the year would produce an unprecedented spike in statically measured earthquakes.
At this point the question of LHC potency/impotence is irrelevant. Right now we are debating whether an unprecedented spike in the number of earthquakes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9 is credible data … (!) … Who cares about LHC any more? If we have reached the stage of increasing earthquakes … that means the point-of-no-return has been passed… who cares when? However, the question of when this could have happened is relevant to some degree. According to your Wikipedia report, they didn’t reach 7 TeV until early 2010. Creating a mini-black-hole would take a whole lot of initial input energy, therefore I’d guess that it they were to be *successful* it would have occurred closer to Mar 2010. But does that really matter any more?
Remember: Creation of an MBH (or several) at that time could be deduced to escape, feed, and in the process destabilize the internal structure of the planet. As that occurs the rates of volcanic and seismic activities will increase as the Earth, slowly at first, but even continuously ever changes shape as its internal volume is reduced by the feeding MBH. The physical and measurable indication of this will be an ever increasing occurrence of volcanic and earthquake activity. The article presented shows a doubling spike as measured over the first half of 2011.
Trust me, I don't want this to be true more than the next guy. But if it is, that means we all need to be extra Good to each other; we need to be extra careful with our interpersonal actions; and even careful with one's own eyes, tongue, and word. It appears that prophesies are coming to fruition, so then a necessary and final step is Reckoning ... to which we will be judged completely discretely.
In comparison to the Universe we are all much more puny and more short-lived than microbes