Australia

[Michaelangelica]

So its polling day any early predictions?

No.

it all depends on the DEEP NORTH and W.A..

 

I hope Australians are not just swayed by the hip pocket nerve and are as concerned as I am about the erosion of our democratic principles and rights and the culture of secrecy in government.

But I don't know if that cuts water in the mortgage belt.

 

I think the Greens will do well.

possibly even Family First too.

 

I'll let you know at 11pm tonight.

[Rincewind]

So its polling day :) any early predictions?

 

HUGE GARAGE SALE

 

KIRIBILLI HOUSE

SUNDAY 25 NOV

10 AM TO 3 PM

 

EVERYTHING MUST GO

 

 

[Michaelangelica]

 

;) HUGE GARAGE SALE :xparty:

 

KIRIBILLI HOUSE

SUNDAY 25 NOV

10 AM TO 3 PM

 

EVERYTHING MUST GO :)

 

 

 

 

:hihi:

10.08 pm Saturday

Queensland delivered.

The Greens polled twice as much as the Nats!

Will Tasmania deliver TWO senators?? (where was the Exclusive Brotherhood?)

 

Howard still has the senate until July.

 

We might as well cut off WA and ship it to China.

[Jay-qu]

So lets talk implications of Saturday.

 

Workchoices out, Kyoto signed?

 

interest rates will rise.. as a mortgage holder my mum says she is actually scared, she knows what happened last time :S

[Buffy]

Okay, so just who is this Kevin Rudd guy? What's the real scoop?

 

What's the first raspberry he'll throw at Bush?

 

The only place in the world where liberals are conservative, :)

Buffy

[Michaelangelica]

So lets talk implications of Saturday.

 

Workchoices out, Kyoto signed?

 

interest rates will rise.. as a mortgage holder my mum says she is actually scared, she knows what happened last time :S

Yes all that,

but,

The interesting thing is how to give the tax money back without forcing interest rates up.

 

The US has cleverly kept control of its interest rates while we allow economists to do it (As one US Secretary for labor under Clinton said "I'm an economist. I didn't have the personality to be an accountant"-

Very Monty Python :) )

 

Buffy has taught me the difference between demand and supply economics )( See thread at

http://hypography.com/forums/social-sciences/13261-economics-free-market.html). Maybe an understanding of that would help.

 

The Libs/Nats have cleverly socked away all the budget surplices (spp?) in "Future Funds " (for their pensions) and given it to the Yanks to manage along with a blank check for USA "paper planes" and $10Bil in Spanish Ships etc.

 

Perhaps the way to go is a series of "future funds" for education health and welfare?

At least until Bush performs the coup de grâce on the American economy?

 

How do you give tax money back without stimulating the economy and pushing up interest rates?

Any suggestions?

 

Okay, so just who is this Kevin Rudd guy? What's the real scoop?

Buffy Kevin Rudd is GOD.#

Second time in history one party has controlled all states and Federal Government (last one was Libs for 9 months in 1923?)

Second time in history that a sitting Prime Minister has not only lost government but lost his seat.

The biggest Labor victory in history

 

#the Labour Party in Oz is like a bag of angry cats.

There is a huge difference in political point of view.

From pure socialism to overlap even the Liberals (Think Labor = US Democrats; Liberal = US Republicans - roughly)

 

How the labour Party will cope with TOTAL political control of the country after July remains to be seen.

 

I for one, am very happy about the change as we were becoming increasingly fascist with the so-called "War on Terror".

 

It remains to be seen how right wing Rudd turns out to be;

and

how he manages his "angry bag of cats".

[Rincewind]

how he manages his "angry bag of cats".

 

I didn't hear anyone mention the word "faction" during the whole campaign -- Howard's camp included. He must be doing something right there.

[LaurieAG]

i personally don't beleive that security was 'relaxed"

 

Hi Michaelangelica,

 

It was reported in the press that before the Chaser crew arrived John Howard was delayed for 5 mins because the police didn't have a gate key (guarding a locked gate?) and the APEC organiser himself was refused access through a checkpoint because the police didn't believe who he was.

 

It's all much of a muchness now really, while some may argue that the unemployment rate just went up, others can also argue that unemployables aren't counted anyway. Such is life in politics.

 

I wonder what the Chaser's going to get up to tommorrow night?

[LaurieAG]

Okay, so just who is this Kevin Rudd guy? What's the real scoop?

 

Hi Buffy,

 

"His name is Kevin Rudd, and he's the new head of the Labor Party, a bookish former diplomat who speaks fluent Chinese and is married to a self-made multimillionaire," is how LA Times introduced Mr Rudd to its readers.

 

Bush puppet vs bookish diplomat, says media | NEWS.com.au

 

What's the first raspberry he'll throw at Bush?

 

Signing Kyoto and withdrawing from Iraq are on the cards, for the start anyway.

[Buffy]

"His name is Kevin Rudd, and he's the new head of the Labor Party, a bookish former diplomat who speaks fluent Chinese and is married to a self-made multimillionaire," is how LA Times introduced Mr Rudd to its readers.

Signing Kyoto and withdrawing from Iraq are on the cards, for the start anyway.

Yah, even the papers in the US had that stuff in the one paragraph story buried on page 13...

 

I want *real* scoop that I won't even read in The Economist!

 

"Bookish?" Who does he quote?

 

What did his wife make millions at? I like to follow the money: is she gonna get him to pass subsidies for her business? :hihi:

 

Its obvious he *won* because of his Kyoto and Iraq stands: even though Bush and Condi would probably say that "no one could have foreseen" that Howard would lose, what is Rudd gonna do that will *really* surprise them?

 

Nonplussed at the obvious,

Buffy

[LaurieAG]

I want *real* scoop that I won't even read in The Economist!

 

Hi Buffy,

 

He's a master bureaucrat who set up a sytem in Queensland that ended up with our state premier having more staff in his Premiers department (who vetted everything his ministers released, including legislation) than are in the US embassy in Iraq. He changed our state education and health systems so that they weren't controlled by the doctors and teachers anymore but professional bureaucrats (it's not surprising that our state now has more bureaucrats than teachers and nurses).

 

What did his wife make millions at? I like to follow the money: is she gonna get him to pass subsidies for her business?

 

She ran an international employment type agency but sold off her Australian business arm before the election.

 

Bush and Condi would probably say that "no one could have foreseen" that Howard would lose, what is Rudd gonna do that will *really* surprise them?

 

He might turn out just like themselves, you never know with Australian politics these days.

[Buffy]

He's a master bureaucrat who set up a sytem in Queensland that ended up with our state premier having more staff in his Premiers department (who vetted everything his ministers released, including legislation) than are in the US embassy in Iraq. He changed our state education and health systems so that they weren't controlled by the doctors and teachers anymore but professional bureaucrats (it's not surprising that our state now has more bureaucrats than teachers and nurses).

Is this a good thing?

 

He's one of the few in the history of this country to run for high office talking out of both sides of his mouth at the same time and lying out of both sides, :hihi:

Buffy

[LaurieAG]

Is this a good thing?

 

Hi Buffy,

 

It's a bit of a worry really.

 

The main thing I look at is his response to the Haneef saga (Indian doctor gives phone with 1 months credit to second cousin associated with terrorists in the UK) when it was revealed that the whole thing was flawed from the beginning.

 

So far the only response he has given is that he supported the Howard governments decision (to exercise absolute power without any discretion and especially even if the reasons given were just made up and were proved so).

 

The true test will be how long he dallies with the troop withdrawl from Iraq.

 

That's one thing about the Australian Federal Senate elections, the people who won (half the senate is re-elected each 3 years) don't take up their positions till June 2008. If he dallies far past this point without withdrawing our troops he will face problems regarding his honesty and integrity.

[Michaelangelica]

What Laurie says is right.

Time will tell (Australians sceptical about politicians? -never )

 

Industrial Relations was a big thing in the elections. If you worked for MacDonalds you were expected to ' negotiate' your own working conditions.

Also the weekend is sacred to families, children's sport,church,theatre, eating out, surfing, football, cricket, boozzy parties, The Bbq, etc. To ask Australians to work on weekends (without penalty rates) is frankly "Un Australian".

Australians will work very hard and long all other days and most are highly skilled.

 

Rudd has promised to fix up the "Feedom (read 'expensive') of Information ( read 'nil') Acts relating to the government. To have a less secretive and more open and transparent bureaucracy. I don't know how the powerful neo-cons in Immigration, ASIO, CCC,and Atorney General's Dept. will cope with that.

 

Rudd must have done something right in Queensland as the economy there is going gang-busters (as is Western Australia. We are shipping most of it to China). The other States are not doing so well with some outer urban areas with 20% un or under-employment for youth (Despite Howard's lies about this.)

 

Politically there is no way Rudd can put the breaks on these two powerhouse state economies (Which by themselves are forcing up interest rates (set by the independent Reserve Bank not by the government as in the USA) making things harder again for the eastern sates. A VERY large % of Australians have big home mortgages, and housing is expensive.)

Rudd needs to control inflation. This will be a challenge as the Libs. did this by socking all the over-taxation in "Future Funds" and giving it to Americans to invest. Spending money with so much Chinese money flowing into the econmy will be fraught- inflation wise.

 

Rudd has promised to have a staged withdrawal of troops in Iraq (not anywhere else- like Timor , Afghanistan, etc.,).

What the conservatives have learnt from this election is you can't buy votes. (Especially with money you have taken in over-taxation in the first place). This probably surprised Bush, but Rudd has been in front in the polls constantly for the last 12 months. So if Bush is 'surprised' he is getting lousy advice. Although I don't think anyone expected the very large majority that Rudd did get.

 

Howard did neglect health,science, research,environment, education and welfare.

 

Rudd is highly intelligent, organised, used to leading, very diplomatic, speaks fluent Mandarin, an idealist, a practising Roman Catholic. He has sense of humour, can take a joke about himself (the earwax thing) and smiles (unlike Howard).

Telling, is his "homework" for all his elected members of parliment this week. (While HE works out who his ministers will be. A job that used to be given to the party factions to divvy up.)

He has asked them all to go to a private and public school in his electorate and report back on needs etc., especially with regard to technology.

He has also told them all to visit a homeless shelter and find out how many people they turn away each night.

This also stops the new politicians from plotting for a time.

 

Rudd has promised to give each Minister "performance targets" that they must reach to keep their jobs.

 

He has promised a less divisive, confrontational government with less "blame game" politics. So we maybe we should judge this book by his actions.

 

Howard has not only lost the election but also his seat. The second time ever this has happened.

Also the second time in History that ALL States and Territories and The Federal governments have been from one party (The last time in 1923? with the Libs. for a mere 9 months). Rudd will probably be with us for at least 6 years if he is a good, clever boy. The libs/nats are in total disarray at the moment.

 

Traditionally Australian Voters have voted to have one party in the State another in the Federal arena. But not this time. The Libs ran a big scare campaign about this. Strangely even the good old "scare campaign" standbys did not work this time. The Libs. have traditionally done well with them. Crying 'wolf' once too often?

 

I think Howard moved far to far to the right and the Libs in NSW are heavily in bed with the Christian lobby- which people don't like (unless they are Christian.) Australians don't mind religion as long as it is kept at home between consenting adults.

 

Personally, I hope to see a saner approach to the so called "war on terror" . Or at least one that does not abrogate my human, democratic, justice, and civil rights. talking to terrorists about their fears and concerns rather than shooting them (It worked in N Ireland!)

But I don't know how many people voted for that. Certainly the Green Party's vote was VERY strong and they are the most left wing party we have.

 

Incidentally, I have in the past, sent two emails to PM Howard and two to Rudd. Howard ignored my emails, Rudd replied to both.

[Buffy]

To ask Australians to work on weekends (without penalty rates) is frankly "Un Australian". Australians will work very hard and long all other days and most are highly skilled.

I've noticed! But its always been sad that such a huge percentage of Australian exports are raw materials... :hyper:

Why is that? Has Rudd got any plans for that?

Politically there is no way Rudd can put the breaks on these two powerhouse state economies

Why would he? No leader ever wants to slow down economic growth for fear of causing a recession. Even if its hard for the eastern states:

(Which by themselves are forcing up interest rates (set by the independent Reserve Bank not by the government as in the USA) making things harder again for the eastern sates.

...the theory is that a rising tide raises all ships, so with progressive governmental policies (read "taxes!") you can spread the good around at least a little bit.

 

Note that the US Federal Reserve Bank is a "quasi-governmental" (i.e. at least theoretically "independent") entity: even though the board is nominated by the President, it is expected to act completely independently of the US Government, and when it has acted even seemingly at the behest of the President, the markets have punished those Presidents unmercifully by causing crashes in asset value!

Rudd needs to control inflation. This will be a chalenge as the Libs. did this by socking all the over-taxation in "Future Funds" and giving it to Americans to invest. Spending money with so much Chinese maoney flowing into the econmy will be fraught- infaltion wise.

Ultimately, inflation is caused either by at least short-term shortages (in labor or goods), or long-term imbalance in trade (a bullet the US has been miraculously been avoiding!). Chinese investment can only be *good* for the Australian economy, unless it is *causing* shortages, and I've heard nothing about that. Can you expound on this point?

Rudd has promised to have a staged withdrawal of troops in Iraq (not anywhere else- like Timor , Afghanistan, etc.,).

Yay! Those poor Timorese need the protection! Ditto for the Afghani's but I'm afraid that one's headed for mindless Jihadi conflagration as its been chosen as the easiest place to really start the Global Islamic Caliphate....

What the conservatives have learnt from this election is you can't buy votes. (Especially with money you have taken in over-taxation in the first place). This probably surprised Bush but Rudd has been in front in the polls constantly for 12 months. So if Bush is 'surprised' he is getting lousy advice.

You don't get "advice" from the sycophants he surrounds himself with....its all about "wishful thinking"....

 

Unfortunately it certainly looks like the Liberal party took at face value the claims that Karl Rove was a brilliant political operative and took his techniques as Gospel truth. Now they're experiencing the extreme blowback that comes from a skeptical electorate (something that's coming back here! Woot! Throw the bums out!)

Rudd has promised to give each Minister "performance targets" that they must reach to keep their jobs.

Imagine that! Performance targets! "You owe me this cushy job because I brought in all that money during the election!" Not!

He has promised a less divisive, confrontational government with less "blame game" politics. So we maybe we should judge this book by his actions.

Can we borrow him? This is the number one problem in US politics...now even the Democrats are blaming each other!

Howard has not only lost the election but also his seat.

Ow! That sounds painful! I'm sure however that losing his arse is ultimately a good thing! :doh:

 

Thanks for the very useful insights Michael! :cup:

 

There's no trick to being a humorist when you have the whole government working for you,

Buffy

[Michaelangelica]

Yes we do seem to be diggin up ior chopping down a lot of Australia and shipping it the the US japan, korea and middle east. But things are changing

Historically, more than two-thirds of

Australian exports have been rural- or

resource-based and concentrated in a limited

number of products. Since the early 1980s,

however, the shares of service exports and

exports of manufactures have risen sharply

(Graph 2).

By 2001, service and

manufactured exports accounted for almost

40 per cent of the total, compared with

36 per cent a decade ago and 27 per cent two

decades ago. The steady growth in service and

manufactured exports has provided a more

diversified export base, which has probably

http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/Bulletin/bu_apr02/bu_0402_1.pdf

We really can't compete with India and China as far as mass-manufatured goods go.

I am surprised we still have three car factories (Mitsubishi or is it Mercedes?, Ford and GM Holden all propped up with government handouts)

Certainly the very severe drought, rising oil prices, and rising US$ will not help primary exports.

I heard yesterday that vines and fruit trees around Mildura may take five years to recover if the drought stopped tomorrow.

 

God only knows (and She may be his best chance) what Rudd is going to do about the dire water situation especially in the Murray-Darling Basin This services four states with water.

How big a de-sal plant can you build?. Enough to fill a river or two?.

 

Ultimately, inflation is caused either by at least short-term shortages (in labor or goods), or long-term imbalance in trade (a bullet the US has been miraculously been avoiding!

trained labour is in very short supply (Howard's and Labor's long-term neglect of technical education). There are major infrastructure capacity constraints as well. (Newcastle, north of me, is now the biggest coal port in the world and ships line up for a 100 miles waiting to be loaded).

High fuel prices and the drought is pushing prices up, Food crops are literally drying up. those that aren't have to be shipped along way from far-north or Tasmania.

If Rudd starts spending money and it stimulates the economy more interest rates will rise.

 

I rather like the Libs concept of "Future Funds"

EG

I would like to see, say a,billion $, being given to NSW Hospitals (schools Unis etc -pick a cause) and telling them that they can only spend 50% the investment income from that billion. The other 50% to be re-invested in the principal. In the future such a fund could be self-supporting. It gets rid of the huge budget surplices without causing undue pressure on the economy and fulfils election promises.

Note that the US Federal Reserve Bank is a "quasi-governmental" (i.e. at least theoretically "independent")

OK, didn't know. Tar.

I was just surprised at the last interest rate drop. I thought and independent bank would have put rates up.

Yay! Those poor Timorese need the protection! Ditto for the Afghani's but I'm afraid that one's headed for mindless Jihadi conflagration as its been chosen as the easiest place to really start the Global Islamic Caliphate....

Yes agreed but sadly we have had four deaths (total) in both places recently.

as least both are "legal" wars.

[Buffy]

I was just surprised at the last interest rate drop. I thought and independent bank would have put rates up.

Everyone is paranoid about a looming recession, so following the conventional wisdom, they're trying to stay ahead of the curve and drop rates now *in spite* of inflationary pressures from oil. Also that asset bubble will be much more painful if the mortgage holders don't think they can renegotiate terms downward and still have enough margin for a healthy profit, and dropping rates help tremendously.

 

Dis-in-de-flation,

Buffy