Asteroid 2007 Tu24 Getting Closer

[cyclonebuster]

Yesterday it had the asteroid @.0045 AU 1-29-08 @1200 NOON. Today it is @.0038 AU 1-29-08 @ 1200 NOON. Why the big change?Earth moid is now @ .00096 or 92,00 miles Much less than the 1.4 lunar distance of a few days ago! :hihi:

 

JPL Small-Body Database Browser

[CraigD]

Yesterday it [JPL’s Small Body Database] had the asteroid [2007 TU24] @.0045 AU 1-29-08 @1200 NOON. Today it is @.0038 AU 1-29-08 @ 1200 NOON. Why the big change?

My guess would be that, with only 98 observations over 94 days, there’s still considerable uncertainty about 07 TU24’s orbit. It’s a small body, H=20.162, for a spherical equivalent diameter of 300-400 m, so has to get pretty close to Earth to even be observed.

 

My NEO experience is rusty, and terribly out-of-date (I haven’t been in an observatory since 1981 :)). The best explanation would, I suspect, be from NASA JPL itself – I’d recommend trying their education and outreach contacts, and a lot of patience, since they’re a very well-known institution, and get a lot of external contact.

[cyclonebuster]

My guess would be that, with only 98 observations over 94 days, there’s still considerable uncertainty about 07 TU24’s orbit. It’s a small body, H=20.162, for a spherical equivalent diameter of 300-400 m, so has to get pretty close to Earth to even be observed.

 

My NEO experience is rusty, and terribly out-of-date (I haven’t been in an observatory since 1981 :)). The best explanation would, I suspect, be from NASA JPL itself – I’d recommend trying their education and outreach contacts, and a lot of patience, since they’re a very well-known institution, and get a lot of external contact.

 

I guess it could have been a new observation coming in. To bad the numbers didn't go the other way!

[Turtle]

New radar images of TU24 now available. >> JPL.NASA.GOV: News Releases

[Giles Corey]

I am not well educated on such matters, being the fact that im only in high school. :shrug:

But once the asteroid passes close enough, will not the effects of gravity change its course (drastically?), for better or worse?

~Giles be Questioning

[Turtle]

I am not well educated on such matters, being the fact that im only in high school. :evil:

But once the asteroid passes close enough, will not the effects of gravity change its course (drastically?), for better or worse?

~Giles be Questioning

 

The article does not give those exact calculations, but this bit implies they did them.

 

JPL.NASA.GOV: News Releases

..."With these first radar observations finished, we can guarantee that next week's 1.4-lunar-distance approach is the closest until at least the end of the next century," said Steve Ostro, JPL astronomer and principal investigator for the project. "It is also the asteroid's closest Earth approach for more than 2,000 years." ...

 

It is not clear to me the difference between 'closest until at least the end of the next century' and 'closest Earth approach for more than 2,000 years.'

 

Perhaps they mean the closest approach in the next century of any known asteroid. :eek: Kinda lacks a confidence boost given they didn't see this at all until a few months ago. :shrug:

[Giles Corey]

Ok, i understand that without any real numbers to look at, its quite impossible to come to a conclusion. But from looking at the original link (Also aware of the doubt behind the orbit/ speed, etc), it seems to me that for the asteroid to come anywhere near makeing contact with earth, they both must be in the same place of their orbit. And i began to fast-forward the time untill both bodies would come near again. I dont remember how many exactly, but it was say 27 or 30 years untill it seemed they would have the correct conditions. (Of course, its just an animation and most likley by no means dead on accurate after few observations).

~Giles is orbiting

[Buffy]

A reminder to anyone perusing this thread today:

 

Duck!

 

Close, but no cookie, :)

Buffy

[Turtle]

A reminder to anyone perusing this thread today:

 

Duck!

 

Close, but no cookie, :lol:

Buffy

 

:) And cover! It's duck-n-cover! :hihi:

 

Here's the main page for NASA's Near Earth Object Project Program >> Near-Earth Object Program

 

Astronomically close, but no Chicken Little

:)