Spy Satellite DeathMatch

[Mercedes Benzene]

Okay, so in case some of you haven't yet heard, a huge US spy satellite has lost power and will plummet to the earth sometime in late February or early march. Enough poisonous hydrazine to go around.

 

Joy.

Article

 

Anyway, I figured that I would make a contest out of it since it's been HOT news recently.

Where's it gonna' crash?

 

Rules:

-3 entries.

-Give coordinates for a location here on good 'ol planet earth where you think this sucker will fall. Degrees and seconds please.

-All entries due before Saturday February 16th.

-The person with the closest set of coordinates to the actual crash site gets a prize (to be determined?)

-If the government decides to shoot it down, the contest ends immediately, and the person with the closest set of coordinates to the re-entry site gets the prize.

 

God bless the NSA! :shrug:

Seperate prize for any member who can get a picture of the debris plumetting/blazing through the atmosphere (must have a printed Hypo logo in the picture for varification, of course;))

[DougF]

OK I'm game, let me run some numbers and I'll be back.

[Jay-qu]

Hmm accident hey.. what if this ballistic lump of metal lands in, say Bahgdag :)

[Mercedes Benzene]

Before I proffer coordinates, to what degree of accuracy do we have to put them? Degrees? Minutes? Seconds?

I forgot to put those in the rules:doh: (::changing::) Degrees and minutes please.

 

And to be perfectly honest, I didn't even read this article. I just chose a local newspaper so I could just post quickly. :hihi: So about not being able to shoot it down... bummer. This could be quite a sticky situation.

 

Hmm accident hey.. what if this ballistic lump of metal lands in, say Bahgdag

 

Is that what you Aussies are calling Baghdad now? :lol:

Just playing. :)

But yeah. That would be... er... convenient. What if it landed on the new US embassy in Baghdad?? :)

[Jay-qu]

I forgot to put those in the rules:doh: (::changing::) Degrees and minutes please.

 

And to be perfectly honest, I didn't even read this article. I just chose a local newspaper so I could just post quickly. :hihi: So about not being able to shoot it down... bummer. This could be quite a sticky situation.

 

 

 

Is that what you Aussies are calling Baghdad now? :)

Just playing. :)

But yeah. That would be... er... convenient. What if it landed on the new US embassy in Baghdad?? :)

It would be even more convenient :lol: just messin

 

Well statistics suggest that it would be likely to hit ocean, where can I see some data of its current position?

[Turtle]

45º 34' N

122º 30' W

Government Island - Low Tide

[DougF]

Mercedes Benzene

Rules:

-3 entries.

-Give coordinates for a location here on good 'ol planet earth where you think this sucker will fall. Degrees and seconds please.

 

OK three guesses.

(1.) N.45º 30' W. 100º 30' South Dakota

(2.) N.60º 54' W. 107º 15' Canada

(3.) N.23º 26' W. 102º 41' Mexico

 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The U.S. military is developing contingency plans to deal with the possibility that a large spy satellite expected to fall to Earth in late February or early March could hit North America.

U.S. plans for falling satellite - CNN.com

[freeztar]

Well, seeing as Skylab hit Oz, I wouldn't be surprised if this satellite did as well.

 

Increased solar activity, heating the outer layers of the Earth's atmosphere and thereby increasing drag on Skylab, led to an early reentry at approximately 16:37 UTC 11 July 1979. In the weeks leading up to the reentry, ground controllers had re-established contact with the six year old vehicle, and were able to adjust its attitude for optimal reentry dynamics. Earth reentry footprint was a narrow band (approx. 4° wide) beginning at about 48° S 87° E and ending at about 12° S 144° E, an area covering portions of the Indian Ocean and Western Australia. Debris was found between Esperance, Western Australia, and Rawlinna, Western Australia, 31–34°S, 122–126°E. An Australian municipality, the Shire of Esperance, fined the United States $400 for littering.[2] In 2004, the History Channel documentary "History Rocks" stated, in an episode covering major events of 1979, that this fine has never been paid.

 

$400 fine!

;) You ozzies! :hihi:

 

Nonetheless, I would find it much more "humorous" if it landed in China. So, here's my guess:

[DougF]

OK, I found tis site where they keep track of the Decaying Satellite, you can see the current position with a ground track along with a Orbital height/ETA chart.

 

Decaying spy satellite USA 193

 

There has been much discussion in the news media recently concerning this satellite and when and where is will come back to Earth. We would like to use this page to summarise what is known and not known.

 

Decaying spy satellite USA 193

 

and this is a site called "J-Track 3D" where you can see and track satellites in 3D ( you wont find USA 193 in here it's a secret ) but if you ever wanted to know what was up there then this will show you.

NASA - Science@NASA J-Track 3D

[Turtle]

... you wont find USA 193 in here it's a secret ...

 

:doh: Or, not so much... Slashdot | Tracking Satellites That Aren't There

 

Welcome to Heavens-Above

[modest]

Looks like they will shoot it down - or at least try.

 

The Associated Press: US: Broken Satellite Will Be Shot Down

 

It's not official yet, but the AP is very reliable in its sources. I would think they'd do whatever they could to keep whatever secrets it has away from unfriendly eyes.

 

Too bad for the contest.

 

-modest

[DougF]

modest

Looks like they will shoot it down - or at least try.

 

 

they must think it'll come down somewhere they can't get to it' date='

otherwise they wouldn't waste a guided missile on it. :)

 

freeztar

I would find it much more "humorous" if it landed in China.

 

Maybe you were closer then you think freeztar. ;)

[modest]

As far as shooting it down:

 

30%

chance they miss

result

- embarrassment

 

20%

chance they hit it and only manage to increase the debris area

result

- major embarrassment

 

40%

chance the missile fails somehow to launch/explode

result

- 10 billion per year down the toilet (missile defence)

 

7%

chance we hit the wrong satellite

result

- “we meant to do that - test shot”

 

3%

chance George Bush extrapolates from this incident and decides all satellites are an eminent threat. He declares war on “space-stuff” while Cheney tells Tim Russert on Meet the Press that the moon-people

want

democracy and will greet us as liberators.

result

- nothing much new

 

-modest

[freeztar]

3% chance George Bush extrapolates from this incident and decides all satellites are an eminent threat. He declares war on “space-stuff” while Cheney tells Tim Russert on Meet the Press that the moon-people want democracy and will greet us as liberators.

result - nothing much new[/indent]

 

:cup:

"Space-stuff"!!! That's rich!!

[Mercedes Benzene]

Well... this ruins my fun!

 

hah. Okay, so we may have to change things up a bit.

I guess that all guesses must be placed within the next couple of days (I have to get mine in still).

Also, you may want to edit your guesses, since I doubt they would shoot it down over land.

 

So I guess we'll say that all entries are due Saturday?

[Turtle]

Well... this ruins my fun!

 

hah. Okay, so we may have to change things up a bit.

I guess that all guesses must be placed within the next couple of days (I have to get mine in still).

Also, you may want to edit your guesses, since I doubt they would shoot it down over land.:doh:

 

So I guess we'll say that all entries are due Saturday?

 

Roger. I want to stick with my original prediction for impact location. I further request a bonus if both parts of the satellite AND the missle they shoot at it land on Government Island. :bomb: :cup:

[freeztar]

Maybe you were closer then you think freeztar.

 

In a certain way, it seems I was. :cup:

 

Here's the latest news on it. It's a very interesting article.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/14/science/14cnd-satellite.html?bl&ex=1203138000&en=d8071aba42213b68&ei=5087%0A