The Philosophy of Disaster Preparedness

[Turtle]

___It may have been Aesop who wrote the little story about preparing for tough times. I suppose it was only the tough time of Winter,(squirrels or mice...), but the point of it is the problems which ensue from lack of preperation.

___We have talked about this some in the tsunami thread, & again today in relation to the volcano in my front yard erupting, & I have in mind to ask you all if you're prepared for a disaster, & if not why not?

___Besides your personal preparedness, what percent of your country's people do you think is prepared? The last abstract I saw for the US is about 40%.

___So why do so few prepare? Should I/we care?

[Queso]

Yeah we should, because these things happen. We don't know when, and most of us think they wont.

I live right on americas penis, florida, and last summer during all of those hurricanes, we were pretty prepared, despite just moving here the month before. A lot of stubburn people decided to stay in their homes in the city i live in, we got lucky, but the town 30 minutes away didn't. they got hit the hardest...leveled.

anyway, my point is just...these things do happen. Turtle's right, we do need to be prepared. and sheesh, hurricanes can be predicted...ok ok....phone, good night.

[Buffy]

No one is really ever prepared. I was on the opposite side of the planet when my house burned down in a major catastrophy, but that didn't stop it from being a traumatic experience. The loss of possessions are nothing. Don't worry about them: if you have a plan, just have it be a plan to *get out* in one piece with your loved ones (and I mean humans: your pets will take care of themselves). Know your escape routes. Have a healthy respect for nature. On the north coast of California they remind all visitors: "never turn your back on the ocean."

 

Be careful out there,

Buffy

[sanctus]

I think turtles was asking personal preparedness and I think that should be limited for the risk of bevoming paranoid. I lived in valleys with big water barrages, I once read somewhere what I should do if the wall was to break, but I never thought about it constantly, if not every time I went to my town I should have been extremely scared as there were about 6 barrages around that could have destroyed my town.

 

I think what is more important is that a nation has its programs to be prepared for desaster so one can live more freely. Now in a case like orbysclys, I think you have to prepared but the hurricane is not a disaster as I see it, simply because it is predictable you know that once a year at least a hurricane can come so you have to be prepared and are not paranoid as the hurricane actually arrives.

[C1ay]

___It may have been Aesop who wrote the little story about preparing for tough times. I suppose it was only the tough time of Winter,(squirrels or mice...), but the point of it is the problems which ensue from lack of preperation.

___We have talked about this some in the tsunami thread, & again today in relation to the volcano in my front yard erupting, & I have in mind to ask you all if you're prepared for a disaster, & if not why not?

___Besides your personal preparedness, what percent of your country's people do you think is prepared? The last abstract I saw for the US is about 40%.

___So why do so few prepare? Should I/we care?

 

I'm as prepared as I think is practical. Even if Yellowstone erupts and half of the U.S. is wiped out I am prepared to live off of the land if need be, both physically and mentally. As for the average american citizen though, I think most are in a dream state that it cannot and will not happen to them. If and when nature strikes I think most will wish that they had given it more thought in advance.

[[email protected]]

We live in New Mexico and except for forest fires and a few hard winds are pretty lucky. I read about the Pacific Northwest being able to survive a tsunami because they would have a fifteen minute warning. I wonder how that would work? Broadcast on the radio? Not evryone listens to the radio. I think you should prepare by moving from areas like Florida that have high risks and not much future. The southern half of Florida never rises above 50 feet.

[bumab]

In the Pac NW we have sirens throughout town for tsunami warnings, which get tested once or twice a year. But I'll bet 50% of the people living here don't know what those sirens mean (air raid?)...

 

I heard that most people who die in disasters are new to the area. I grew up here, and 25 years of sirens means I'll know when a tsunami is coming. But a lot of my friends, new to the area, won't. I think 90% of "disaster preparation" is just knowing what's possible.

[RiverRat]

Here is a scenario that very few people can be prepared…

 

The total collapse of industrialized society on a world wide basis brought about by the steady depletion of our planets fossil fuels (oil being the first).

 

It is postulated by numerous geologist (some of which worked for years with BIG OIL CO’s) that we are near PEAK OIL production. This peak is estimated to occur between 2010 and 2015. This estimate has been countered as too aggressive by others. But… can it be imagined what impact the vast economic growth of China and India will do to oil reserves?

 

One time line I came across was startling! It is estimated by 2040-2050 the world will be in transition back to an agrarian society coinciding with a massive population reduction.

 

Quack Doomsday Scenario …. Maybe

Possible Outcome … Maybe

 

http://www.peakoil.net

http://www.oilcrisis.net

[bumab]

I doubt it will be catastrophic (sadly) when oil runs out. If it were to suddenly stop coming out of the ground, THAT would be catastrophic. But more likely, prices will slowly, but steadily, increase until gas is too expensive to buy for most people, forcing action from the government. Sadly, it also gives them time to find alternative sources of oil, like the tar sand deposits in northern Canada. Extraction of that gives oil, but on a destructive scale (to the environment), that's hard to imagine.

 

Sometimes I wish it would suddenly get pinched off, but I think it's more likely to slowly trickle out.

[Fishteacher73]

I think one should be aware of the possibities of disaster in your area and what the appropriate action should be. One must also recognize that a life of constant fear of death is futile. You might as well be a rat then. Understand that there are risks for any activity, even when selecting where to live. If you are terrified of tidal waves...Live in Kansas. Unless you spent Y2K hunkered down in a bomb shelter with cases of canned peas waiting for the computers to turn on us, simply get over it. Understand your risks, do what you can to minimize the risk without becoming consumed by it; have some joe and a smoke and do the crossword. If the world wants you dead, there aint no runnin'.

[kaelcarp]

I was in the World Trade Center (in the basement) when it was struck by the first plane, and I saw the second one hit while I was standing outside. There was nothing in the world that could have prepared people for that.

 

Everything in life requires some level of risk. Much of the time, higher risks lead to higher rewards. Being prepared is great and necessary for survival, but one can only be prepared to a certain degree. Beyond that degree, one becomes stifled by preparedness. Think of all the people who "prepared" for Y2K. Sure, there was a remote possibility that things would go haywire, but there were people who spent thousands of dollars on extra food and water, people who rewired their homes unnecessarily, etc.

 

Your level of preparedness should be in proportion to the likelihood and the severity of the event. Preparing for a tornado in the midwest is a very good idea, since they happen quite often and can cause a lot of damage. Preparing for one in New York, despite the fact that they do occur from time to time, is pretty much a waste.

 

There is also opportinity cost. Preparing for one thing is less time put into preparing for something else. You always have to ask whether you are better off preparing for x or y, given time constraints.

[RiverRat]

Bumab .. I doubt it will be catastrophic (sadly) when oil runs out. If it were to suddenly stop coming out of the ground, THAT would be catastrophic.

But more likely, prices will slowly, but steadily, increase until gas is too expensive to buy for most people, forcing action from the government.

 

It would be prudent to point out that oil is a critical part of enormous amounts of products that our society takes for granted (plastics, fertilizers, medicine, etc…). The impact of depletion in oil would not just be felt at the gas pump.

 

I’m unsure what the government would be able to do when we reach the point of demand outstripping supply. I suppose we could pillage other countries stockpiles to prolong the inevitable. Otherwise … the government would have to severely restrict the ‘lifestyles’ of all citizens.

 

 

Sadly, it also gives them time to find alternative sources of oil, like the tar sand deposits in northern Canada. Extraction of that gives oil, but on a destructive scale (to the environment), that's hard to imagine.

 

This is a societal decision that will need to be made in the near future. We can’t have our cake and eat it too. What truly is sad is … there really is no other viable energy source that can compete with the energy density of oil. All other know alternative energy sources would need to be fine tuned and ramped up may percentage points on a ‘yearly’ basis to even make a small dent it the gap formed in the oil undersupply.

 

Sometimes I wish it would suddenly get pinched off, but I think it's more likely to slowly trickle out.

 

Believe me …. You would NOT want oil to be suddenly pinched off. Even a slow trickle out will be quite painful (sans a radical ‘Hail Mary’ alternative energy source that could fuel the worlds linear upward economic growth).

[bumab]

Believe me …. You would NOT want oil to be suddenly pinched off. Even a slow trickle out will be quite painful (sans a radical ‘Hail Mary’ alternative energy source that could fuel the worlds linear upward economic growth).

 

I know :) . But sometimes you just wish for that disaster that wakes everybody up to what we are doing to the planet. Give people more time, and they'll have more time to rationalize, deny, and say "No problem, we can handle it," even if the earth can't.

 

It's one of those things you wish for sometimes, but not really. :)

[Turtle]

___ I didn't have the oil running out in mind for a disaster, but so it will be.

___I also like kaelcarp's & FishTeacher's points on judging the risk, & I admit to symptomatic mild paranoia.

___On the philosophical side, and in relation to the Aesop's fable, there is the problem of the prepared also having to take care of the unprepared. In the fable the unprepared animal was lazy & critical of the preparing animal, & then when disaster came, went right to the prepared guys place & demanded to be let in & fed. This may not present a difficulty for a short lived disaster, eg. tornado , or quake, but for a larger longerlived situation, animals won't be knocking & asking but smashing & taking.

___Now on the idea that if the world want's me dead... I will not go gently into that goodnight. People always tell me if it's between living in a hole or dying, they'd rather just die. Give me the hole anyday.

___Keep up the great replies; this is quite interesting to hear international views. :)

[Turtle]

___Here is a new publication from USGS on earthquake preparedness:

http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/2005/15/

___The document applies to a wider range of disasters as well, in the preperation of supplies, escape, etc.. :shrug:

[damocles]

Re: The Phiosophy of Disaster Preparedness

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

By RiverRat

 

Here is a scenario that very few people can be prepared…

 

The total collapse of industrialized society on a world wide basis brought about by the steady depletion of our planets fossil fuels (oil being the first).

 

It is postulated by numerous geologist (some of which worked for years with BIG OIL CO’s) that we are near PEAK OIL production. This peak is estimated to occur between 2010 and 2015. This estimate has been countered as too aggressive by others. But… can it be imagined what impact the vast economic growth of China and India will do to oil reserves?

 

One time line I came across was startling! It is estimated by 2040-2050 the world will be in transition back to an agrarian society coinciding with a massive population reduction.

 

Quack Doomsday Scenario …. Maybe

Possible Outcome … Maybe

 

http://www.peakoil.net

http://www.oilcrisis.net

 

 

We hit supply/demand breakeven in 2004. Actual market shortages due to production capacity exist now. Maybe the extraction plateau is 2015 maybe 2010....but the continuing quest by Europe, the Americas and East Asia for new oil fields to exploit promises to add WAR to the list of disasters for which most people are presently unready to face.

 

Need I remind people that it was OIL for Japan's Chinese war that brought on the Second World War in the Pacific?

 

I would like to add my favorite resource shortage to the list oif disasters people are not prepared to face-potable water.

 

In the case of the United States;

 

http://www.doi.gov/water2025/Water2025.pdf

 

In the case of the Middle East:

 

http:// http://www.mideastweb.org/water.htm

 

For Africa;

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/africa/newsid_454000/454926.stm

 

For Asia;

 

http://meria.idc.ac.il/journal/2005/issue1/jv9no1a5.html

 

Its obvious to me that people in Central Asia may not fight over an oil well once petroleum based energy systems technologies go tango uniform, but they will fight for an oasis for their livestock.

 

http://www.tsha.utexas.edu/handbook/online/articles/view/SS/azs1.html

 

Those range wars were as much about water supply as it was about the best grassland and sheep......

 

By bumab

 

I doubt it will be catastrophic (sadly) when oil runs out. If it were to suddenly stop coming out of the ground, THAT would be catastrophic. But more likely, prices will slowly, but steadily, increase until gas is too expensive to buy for most people, forcing action from the government. Sadly, it also gives them time to find alternative sources of oil, like the tar sand deposits in northern Canada. Extraction of that gives oil, but on a destructive scale (to the environment), that's hard to imagine.

 

Sometimes I wish it would suddenly get pinched off, but I think it's more likely to slowly trickle out.

 

Its that tarsand that China is eyeing.

 

http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/americas/09/08/canada.china.ap/

 

Let me be blunt. China WILL NOT get those fields.

 

Idiotic.

 

I would much rather;

 

http://auto.howstuffworks.com/hydrogen-economy.htm

 

had started on that in 1980 when I first saw oil industry projections.

 

Now before UncleAl comes bombing in and correctly lambastes me for not pointing out that a hydrogen economy, as envisioned now, uses reformulation of fossil fuels to obtain hydrogen for the fuel cells and that the actual fuel efficiency of an electric fuel cell powered motor is less than its equivalent diesel or gasoline engine counterpart when all factors are considered....

 

I would like to say in my own defense;

1. that I had hoped the enviro-weenies would wise up and see the need for increased fission reactor generated electricity, instead of the coal and oil fired plants we use now.

2. that I always knew that electrolysis of seawater was the only sensible technical start point for obtaining hydrogen.

3. That I understand that in order for electrolysis of seawater for hydrogen to work you have to generate and dedicate up to fifty percent of your powergrid electricity for fuel(using current generating capacity as the baseline) just to make 80% of the current car/truck fleet fuel requirement(the minimum needed for American society to currently operate.).

4. that as of yet, the fuel-celled powered tractor trailer rig is something of a pipe dream(engine efficiencies again) and that we might have to electrify our railroad network as well, settling for pure electric locomotives with all the technical nightmares that that entails since a fuel cell powered locomotive lacks the tractor efficiency of its steam or diesel counterparts.

5. that we can forget about hydrogen powered jet aircraft for the forseeeable future.

6. and that despite the claims of its proponents, the hydrogen economy has some distinct severe negative ecological effects ranging from heat pollution to heavy metal poisons.

 

On a side note. The same electrolysis hydrogen extraction that would have given us hydrogen fuel could have been staged yet again to give us potable water for the water deprived areas mentioned above.

 

If we had prepared in 1980 for the coming OIL and WATER disasters, we might be twenty years ahead of the economic dislocation that is going to make the Great Depression/Slump look like a picnic. It won't prevent it, the economic dislocation: but it would have mitigated the economic effects......

[lindagarrette]

We hit supply/demand breakeven in 2004. Actual market shortages due to production capacity exist now. Maybe the extraction plateau is 2015 maybe 2010....but the continuing quest by Europe, the Americas and East Asia for new oil fields to exploit promises to add WAR to the list of disasters for which most people are presently unready to face.

 

The market is always in equalibrium in the long term. The world economy can suffer shocks ffrom time to time but it all depends on how much people are willing to pay for a commodity. When fossil fuels become more expensive than alternatives, they will be abandoned. No crisis or War.