The GW denialists are winning

[maikeru]

Running our of oil isn't scary, giving up looking is. There's been a ban on expanded offshore exploration and drilling for more than 27 years. If exploration is banned, how do we know we're running out?

 

From what I understand, the majority of the productive major oil field discoveries happened up until the 1960s and 1970s. From there new oil fields have been found and brought online, but the rate of production is decreasing and these newer oil fields are not as productive or profitable as the old ones. The EROEI of oil exploration and production keeps falling. Not only that, when you look at the EIA's total world production of crude oil in barrels per day per year, from 2004-2008, it appears that production rates are slowing to a crawl. In fact, 2007 was below 2005, 2006, and 2008. The past couple years we've had rising and record oil prices that have spurred more drilling, exploration, and opportunities for investment, yet we're not seeing huge spikes in production to keep up with demand.

 

Table 11.5 World Crude Oil Production, 1960-2008 (Million Barrels per Day)

 

I believe this indicates that there's a disconnect somewhere, and probably no matter how hard they're exploring, drilling, and pumping, like Russia was in 2008 during the oil debacle, something's up: production cannot meet demand, even if they wanted it to.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/business/worldbusiness/28iht-renrus.1.17283331.html

 

"The era of easy oil, in the world and in Russia in particular, is over," said Dmitry Dolgov, a spokesman for a major Russian oil company, Lukoil. "The traditional deposits are in decline and it is a natural process that cannot be stopped."

 

Russia's oil boom may be running on empty | McClatchy

 

Your source isn't from petroleum engineers unlike Exxon's forecast of continued increased production until at least 2030. Your source has a vested interest in running out of oil, Exxon doesn't.

 

And you're saying that Exxon doesn't have a vested interest in saying we won't?

 

I got a quote from Lukoil from an article I read back in 2008. Russians don't have a vested interested in oil running out, but they hint at it and acknowledge that they're running out. And they're clearly not happy about it.

 

Geologists, engineers, and other scientists at this year's Petroleum Geology Conference voted on Peak Oil as a concern, and they voted with a majority of yes:

 

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/20091000%20Pet%20Rev%20-%20BP%20PO%20debate.pdf

 

I'm rather certain these guys don't have a vested interested in Peak Oil, yet they acknowledge it too. Petroleum engineers and geologists included.

 

In a way it doesn't matter whether Peak Oil is today, tomorrow, or next week. 2006, 2010, 2020, or 2030. It's not the Rapture, Apocalypse, or Armageddon, IMO. We won't run out of all oil nor will we run out overnight. It depends on several factors, some of which we know and some of which we don't. We may have passed it already or we may be nearing it soon. Predictions are not exact, but they cluster either on the past few years or the next. We can make predictions about trends in population growth, energy and oil use in developing countries, Western countries, etc. However, we'll never really know until we get there and over the hump. What's important to realize is that it's going to run out. And that thought should prompt planning and foresight to deal with what might come. Oil won't be as cheap, it won't be as plentiful, and it won't support the life we were once accustomed to. And it might be worse. I find those thoughts disturbing.

 

Can you back show me why you believe the claim we are, "choking to death on pollution"?

 

Personal experience that is well documented on the internet, by the media, and by the EPA. Others in various parts of the country do as well. Being in Germany you're rather far away from the US, so perhaps it's not on your mind.

 

08/19/2008: Utah's air quality violates federal fine particulate matter standard

 

Honestly, I have no further interest in discussing Peak Oil with you, and I think it strays from the topic of the thread.

[BrianG]

Oil producers and warmists have a similar goal, to make fossil fuel precious and rare, thus increasing the price of fossil fuel.

 

On another note, denialists are winning because warmists aren't proposing experimental tests for climate change mitigation.

[Michaelangelica]

One reason?

Lord Monckton in Oz

(Alan Jones is a powerful, fascist shock-jock)

Lord of the Airwaves

 

It's been hard to miss the Australian visit of Lord Monckton – free market ideologue, professional controversialist and debunker-in-chief of climate change. But has he been given a free ride?

Media Watch: Lord of the Airwaves (08/02/2010)