Are we alone?

[Pyrotex]

The scientists, Malfeasance, Fottasite, Kuttomov, Smith and Scrouthers from the University of East Perdition in Middlesex, England, have demonstrated that the detection of swizzle sticks and used condoms is an almost certain indication of Life of some form, though it may be rather primitive and/or barbaric.

[Boerseun]

The scientists, Malfeasance, Fottasite, Kuttomov, Smith and Scrouthers from the University of East Perdition in Middlesex, England, have demonstrated that the detection of swizzle sticks and used condoms is an almost certain indication of Life of some form, though it may be rather primitive and/or barbaric.

Wimps. I would say the presence of swizzle sticks and used condoms is a certain indication. None of this "almost" business. The only problem is that used condoms are mighty hard to resolve at interstellar distances. So you'll have to go for the spectroscopic signature of a cloud of latex orbiting a star. How you will know if they're used or not (not knowing the alien species' biochemistry - thus not knowing what to look for in the spectrometer) is another matter, entirely.

We can assume that the presence of a condom is sufficient - it implies a manufacturer. It does not have to be used, though - because we'll have no way of telling whether it was used or not.

[Moontanman]

Yes we are alone, we are born alone, we live alone, and we die alone, the winter is stark and cold and lasts forever.... Unless you have multiple personalities then you have friends and enemies all in side your head, the sun shines and it's party time!

[Moontanman]

Wimps. I would say the presence of swizzle sticks and used condoms is a certain indication. None of this "almost" business. The only problem is that used condoms are mighty hard to resolve at interstellar distances. So you'll have to go for the spectroscopic signature of a cloud of latex orbiting a star. How you will know if they're used or not (not knowing the alien species' biochemistry - thus not knowing what to look for in the spectrometer) is another matter, entirely.

We can assume that the presence of a condom is sufficient - it implies a manufacturer. It does not have to be used, though - because we'll have no way of telling whether it was used or not.

 

Maybe the condom rain is proof of a creator trying to control the population of his randy creations! (The swizzle sticks are just devices to show how the condoms are used!)

[Turtle]

Originally Posted by Turtle

.... alright, let's take just your 10 molecule black swans expected 1 every 36 million years. now a 14 billion year universe, so we could expect over 300 10 molecule half-gassed glasses to surprisingly, impactily, justifiable-after-the-factily to occur. oui/no? what i'm getting at is that the probability calculation says nothing about when these events, or any probabilistically determined event, happen. when these terms are used, there is a fallacious implication that such things happen "once every" expected time period, when in fact the events could happen in the allotted time all in a row, or not happen at all yet, or a few here, a few there, or in any random order.

 

so in conclusion, i conclude. a little early & blurry here; will check back later. :coffee_n_pc:

So if we were to determine (somehow) that there must be about 1500 technological civilizations in our galaxy (of ~5billion star systems?) and then went about calculating the average distance from earth to the closest one - which is where I was taking this thread - we are basing this on a model of our galaxy in which technological civilizations are evenly distributed throughout, which is not realistic. Probability approaching zero. Chances are 1500 random events would be lumped into clusters here and there.

 

How's that, sensei?

 

yes weedhopper; randomly distributed. which is to say, unpredictable as that is the very core idea of "random".

1. Having no specific pattern, purpose, or objective:

 

until or unless i get the book The Black Swan http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/1400063515#reader_1400063515, i can't presume to rigorously say how the theory constrains your search for life.

 

 

As far as the contention that life is inevitable - this strikes me as fallacy of a different flavor: failure to recognize the middle ground; false dicotomy. I am arguing that life is rare. Opposition needn't declare that it is inevitable. It would suffice to argue that it is likely.

 

:doh: no; the "life is inevitable" fallacy is not a false dichotomy, it is a Converse Fallacy of Accident as i showed in post #86. i haven't worked it up formally, but i posit the "life is unique so it has to be created" argument is a fallacy of the same type.

 

if you beat me to getting that book, give me a jingle.

[coldcreation]

yes weedhopper; randomly distributed. which is to say, unpredictable as that is the very core idea of "random".

 

...

 

:coffee_n_pc: no; the "life is inevitable" fallacy is not a false dichotomy, it is a Converse Fallacy of Accident as i showed in post #86. i haven't worked it up formally, but i posit the "life is unique so it has to be created" argument is a fallacy of the same type.

 

Though it is true we have no way to verify either scenario at this time, that does not imply that the 'life is inevitable' argument is a fallacy of the same type as the "life is unique so it has to be created". No one is arguing that life is inevitable everywhere and at all times, since most of us recognize that the right conditions have to be present for life to subsist.

 

Certainly, here on earth, life is invariably occurring or appearing; predictable, therefor inevitable. The scenario that gave way to life here operates by processes that are not unique to earth and based on natural laws (in concord with thermodynamic and chemical processes, climatic conditions etc.).

 

To say, on the other hand, that "life is unique so it has to be created" implies that the laws of physics along with thermodynamical and chemical processes are unique to earth and so are unlikely, not invariably occurring or appearing; unpredictable, therefor avoidable.

 

If the laws of physics are global (not local) then life appears to be inevitable (with or without condoms ). That is a fair assumption, not a fallacy.

 

 

 

Energy flow and the organization of life

 

Life is universally understood to require a source of free energy and mechanisms with which to harness it. Remarkably, the converse may also be true: the continuous generation of sources of free energy by abiotic processes may have forced life into existence as a means to alleviate the buildup of free energy stresses. This assertion – for which there is precedent in non-equilibrium statistical mechanics and growing empirical evidence from chemistry – would imply that life had to emerge on the earth, that at least the early steps would occur in the same way on any similar planet, and that we should be able to predict many of these steps from first principles of chemistry and physics together with an accurate understanding of geochemical conditions on the early earth. A deterministic emergence of life would reflect an essential continuity between physics, chemistry, and biology. It would show that a part of the order we recognize as living is thermodynamic order inherent in the geosphere, and that some aspects of Darwinian selection are expressions of the likely simpler statistical mechanics of physical and chemical self-organization.

 

[...]

 

Energy flow embeds life within the geosphere not just mechanistically but conceptually as an inevitable form of driven geochemical order

 

CC

[Turtle]

Though it is true we have no way to verify either scenario at this time, that does not imply that the 'life is inevitable' argument is a fallacy of the same type as the "life is unique so it has to be created".

 

well, when dealing with syllogistic/argumentative logic, opinion holds no sway. so, i was mistaken "life is unique so it has to be created" was the same fallacy. it is actually, a Fallacy of Accident, not Converse Fallacy of Accident. the "problem" with "life is unique so it has to be created" is that we have not examined all the "earth-like" planets. :coffee_n_pc:

 

...The taxonomy of material fallacies is widely adopted by modern logicians and is based on that of Aristotle, Organon (Sophistici elenchi). This taxonomy is as follows:

 

Fallacy of Accident: a generalization that disregards exceptions

Examples ...

Argument: Cutting people is a crime. Surgeons cut people. Therefore, surgeons are criminals.

Problem: Cutting people is only sometimes a crime.

Argument: It is illegal for a stranger to enter someone's home uninvited. Firefighters enter people's homes uninvited, therefore firefighters are breaking the law.

Problem: The exception does not break nor define the rule.

Also called destroying the exception, a dicto simpliciter ad dictum secundum quid.

 

Fallacy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

 

... No one is arguing that life is inevitable everywhere and at all times, since most of us recognize that the right conditions have to be present for life to subsist.

well, they are arguing it is inevitable where conditions such as on earth occur. logical fallacy of the converse accident kind.

[modest]

Certainly, here on earth, life is invariably occurring or appearing; predictable, therefor inevitable.

 

There is inevitably life on earth :D

 

The scenario that gave way to life here operates by processes that are not unique to earth

 

Many unique scenarios happen by ordinary processes. I can put together a string of letters:

 

"nortinsafr comieringrail sababar lort bojalmun sandorf dettimpeg"

 

The normal process of typing letters on my keyboard just made something unique. The chances that a 64-character string of random letters would make that compilation is one in 10⁹⁰. The formation of life may well have involved 64 very ordinary processes, and be unique. On the other hand, this sentence:

 

"I went shopping today"

 

I know is not unique. I know because I understand language and I recognize the sequence of letters and their meaning and I know that it should be common for them to form that way.

 

When humanity figures out how life formed we'll know if the scenario is common by how easy or favored the reactions are and how specific the environmental conditions are. Not all chemical reactions happen easily. Some things just don't have the conditions available to form. You don't find unbihexium in nature, not because it's logically impossible for it to form, but just because it finds no conditions to form.

 

To say, on the other hand, that "life is unique so it has to be created" implies that the laws of physics along with thermodynamical and chemical processes are unique to earth and so are unlikely, not invariably occurring or appearing; unpredictable, therefor avoidable.

 

Just saying "life is unique" is fallacious enough without the "...it has to be created" part. How would we know?

 

If the laws of physics are global (not local) then life appears to be inevitable (with or without condoms ). That is a fair assumption, not a fallacy.

 

It certainly is an assumption Until there is a falsifiable theory of abiogenesis that makes testable and confirmed predictions, we cannot deductively prove that life is inevitable. Or, until we find life out there we can't inductively prove it's inevitable. Either way: we can't prove that we're not alone with the knowledge we have right now.

 

~modest

[JMJones0424]

Driving distance prevents my attendance to this free public debate, but if anyone interested in this thread lives nearby, it may be worth attending. Hopefully a transcript will be made, or someone will place a recording on youtube.

 

 

Resized from original

[0anc]

Yes we are alone, we are born alone, we live alone, and we die alone, the winter is stark and cold and lasts forever.... Unless you have multiple personalities then you have friends and enemies all in side your head, the sun shines and it's party time!

 

Well said Moontanman.

[JMJones0424]

This is a link to the video of the "Are We Alone?" debate referenced above. One hour and twenty-six minutes.

 

The Great Debate - Are We Alone? - Geoff Marcy and Dan Werthimer | The Search for Extra Terrestrial Intelligence at UC Berkeley

[hummingbird]

This was the caption a couple of months ago on the cover of a popular magazine we subscribe to . The article was about exoplanets. It seemed completely inappropriate to me. The fact that we can detect (Jupiter-like) planets in orbit around other stars I find fascinating and exciting, but the idea doesn’t immediately lead me to think that there might be someone on one of them that I might talk to.

 

 

I think it is an unfounded fantasy. There it is. I think the likelyhood of humans encountering extra-terrestrial intelligence is beyond what we should reasonably think of as possible. Like the likelyhood of me suddenly levitating in thin air here as I type, or of all the molecules in my body suddenly, simultaneously wandering off in separate directions.

 

 

It is a tantalizing idea to many, many people that intelligence may have emerged somewhere else in the nearby cosmos & that we may be able to communicate. Just the fact that popular magazines will use it to sell a loosely related article should alert us that it is tempting to think - and we should be extra-cautious. Everybody wants there to be aliens that we can talk to. It reminds me of the God hypothesis. Everybody wants there to be a God and does everything they can to justify the thinking.

 

 

Both are terrifying to me. And I find both equally untenable. (Thank God!) :)

 

 

 

Newbie here hi. I do believe that there are ufo's but don't know about aliens. Seem them several times in my life. Big bright lights that look like stars. One shook up our car once and our dash board lights went off until it disappeared. Somekind of magnetic interference???

 

Anyways was taking alot of pictures of fireworks when something happen. These lights kept coming down toward us in bright reds but it would go back up and do it all over again. It didn't act like fire works. I tried to take a picture before it disappeared and I got these.

Check out the uniform 3 lights and the one behind it!

 

Oh yeah! Feel free to look at my firework album its really cool.