Spider Solitaire: Which deals are likely to be winnable?

[mynah]

When playing Spider Solitaire (difficult version available with Windows XP and its predecessors) I skip games that are obviously not going to go anywhere: If no or very few moves are possible from the opening deal, for example, your chances of winning the game are zero, or close to that. Chances of a win are significantly better if you are able (in the opening round) to open a large number of hidden cards, form long single-suit columns or clear some columns of hidden cards. If you are able to open all hidden cards in the first round plus complete a suit, you are almost (but not quite) guaranteed a win.

 

I have, however, noticed a rather strange phenomenon: While a large number of moves (excluding an excessive number of Undos) improves your chances of winning to a point, this trend seems to be reversed when a certain number is reached. It appears that the optimum number of moves in the first round is about 25 to 60, and that more than about 80 moves are associated with a decreased chance of winning. (This is assuming that all hidden cards have not been uncovered, and that no suit was completed in the first round.)

 

Has anyone else noticed this phenomenon – and if so, how is it explained? I have a few theories, including one that has just occurred to me, but would like to read your thoughts on the matter.

[Boerseun]

Very addictive game! I enjoy it much more than the regular Solitaire.

 

I normally open a game, and click on the "deal" button till there's only one round left before I start to play. Mostly cuz I've got a masochistic streak in my, I guess... :)

 

Any case - I've found that if you're able to clear at least one column, you've got a good chance of winning. Some take enormous amounts of undos and different strategies and combinations, but most can be cracked. There are an enormous amount of dead-end deals, though. The hell is in finding them... one by one...