San Andreas Fault

[Greg]

in california they are predicting a scale 9 earthquake to last up to 5 mins. is this true.

[Chacmool]

in california they are predicting a scale 9 earthquake to last up to 5 mins. is this true.

 

From which source did you get the info?

[Greg]

cant remember. i got it of discovery science i think. cant remember exactley.

[C1ay]

No mention of it here....

[Greg]

i certainly heard of it.

[C1ay]

i certainly heard of it.

Link please?

[Greg]

in here somewhere.

 

Here

[Chacmool]

in here somewhere.

 

Here

 

This still isn't very specific. Can you perhaps quote the relevant paragraph?

[C1ay]

in here somewhere.

 

Here

lefthttp://hypography.com/forums/images/smilies/umno.gif[/img]

There are no actual predictions of any future earthquakes at that link, only a discussion of past events and how they may help with prediction. Sorry, no winner this time. Please try again.

[Turtle]

___Here is another link to USGS with "warning" report:

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=709

___I noticed the author of the link Greg gave is Ruth Ludwin; she is the USGS scientist that I wrote to about feeling shaking before St. Helens started up in Octoberr. After a few exchanges saying everything is at 'normal background' she provided me a link on the Charlotte King Effect. Basically this refers to people who feel even slight earthquakes as I do. I have a link to the Charlotte King Effect here in another thread; I'll edit it in here in a bit.

___Welcome Greg. :)

 

Charlotte King Effect link:

http://www.viser.net/~charking/

[UncleAl]

The San Andreas fault accumulates strain about as fast as your fingernails grow. As the last big rupture was in 1903, the next big one will shift 30-40 feet. That in itself is not the big deal, aside for some surface inconvenience.

 

A tectonic rupture is a shock. The origin merely wiggles. As the rupture propagates its component waves pile up - a Mach-Stem wave - so that at the far end the energy delivered is brutal. You do not push a nail into wood with a hammer, you strike it.

 

http://ncweb-north.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/latest.htm

http://pasadena.wr.usgs.gov/step/

 

The sin qua non of Earthquake prediction is Parkfield, CA,

 

http://ncweb-north.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Maps/120-36.htm

 

The full force and majesty (and budget!) of earthquake science has been applied there. Square miles of bleeding edge instrumentation litter the area. It's a bad dysfunctional joke. 20 years of intensive study have resulted in no prediction capabilities whatsover. Like economics, earthquake science is only able to analyze in retrospect. Every new day is a surprise. HETEROSKEDASTICITY!

[Turtle]

___Earthquake prediction is tenuous at beast as Al so gracefully expressed. :) Here is a link to a guy not afraid of the prediction dance:

http://www.syzygyjob.com/

 

___I note that after Ruth told me about the Charlotte King Effect, she followed up by saying they have no use for it. Reasonable inasmuch as the seismographs are already recording what I feel. :)