Elon Musk With New Spacex Tech Says Costs Will Drop By A Factor Of 100

[TomKalbfus]

Here something new to talk about:

https://futurism.com/elon-musk-with-new-spacex-tech-rocket-costs-will-drop-by-a-factor-of-100/

[Vmedvil]

Here something new to talk about:

https://futurism.com/elon-musk-with-new-spacex-tech-rocket-costs-will-drop-by-a-factor-of-100/

 

That is a futurism website that is propaganda but we can see how much cheaper it would actually be for a reusable second stage, but space flight is always going to be expensive even in the future. Maybe it will drop it by a factor of 25% to 50% due to the fact that most of the money goes into fuel. a factor of 100 is a major exaggeration. he is saying 10000% drop, I highly doubt that even the falcon 9 to NASA SLS is $62 million

cost to launch versus $1.5 billion, that is not even close to that being only 2419% difference or factor of 24.19 so I don't think so. That being said, I would still want to float the bill of 62 million versus 1.5 billion.

Edited October 9, 2017 by Vmedvil

[Maine farmer]

That is a futurism website that is propaganda but we can see how much cheaper it would actually be for a reusable second stage, but space flight is always going to be expensive even in the future. Maybe it will drop it by a factor of 25% to 50% due to the fact that most of the money goes into fuel. a factor of 100 is a major exaggeration. he is saying 10000% drop, I highly doubt that even the falcon 9 to NASA SLS is $62 million

cost to launch versus $1.5 billion, that is not even close to that being only 2419% difference or factor of 24.19 so I don't think so. That being said, I would still want to float the bill of 62 million versus 1.5 billion.

We always have to be aware of propaganda, and I would caution against the hero worship that is building towards Elon Musk.  Actually, I would caution against hero worship in general.  Even geniuses and exceptionally brave people are still people, and no one is infallible.  Of course the danger in making heroes is that there are also some people willing to go to great lengths to bring them down.  It can be difficult to evaluate situations where personalities loom large.

[Deepwater6]

Very true FG, the way Elon Musk is portrayed in the media you'd think he was building all these re-usable rockets and Tesla cars himself by hand. He is involved or associated with a plethora of businesses and projects. Which I think leaves him with very little time to focus on any of them. Certainly not enough to make day to day changes in all of them.

 

It was an amazing achievement (by his people) getting the re-usable rocket program working so well. Many people thought it would never work, myself included. I'm sure he is an intelligent person and since I'm a "get humans into space" fanatic and he seems to be a driving force to that end, I'm all for him. As I stated in another topic I believe humans should first practice living on foreign soil on the Moon instead of Mars. I have multiple reasons to do that way, but hey, if he can pull it off on Mars, great.

 

 I continue to tell my children who are in their 20's how humans in the last 150yrs have gone from horseback to space stations. They will more than likely see events or discoveries I can't even dream of. I highly doubt many people traveling in covered wagons years ago ever dreamed of a space station, the internet, and Caitlyn J. with the Kardashians, or even thought it possible. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk

[TomKalbfus]

Very true FG, the way Elon Musk is portrayed in the media you'd think he was building all these re-usable rockets and Tesla cars himself by hand. He is involved or associated with a plethora of businesses and projects. Which I think leaves him with very little time to focus on any of them. Certainly not enough to make day to day changes in all of them.

 

It was an amazing achievement (by his people) getting the re-usable rocket program working so well. Many people thought it would never work, myself included. I'm sure he is an intelligent person and since I'm a "get humans into space" fanatic and he seems to be a driving force to that end, I'm all for him. As I stated in another topic I believe humans should first practice living on foreign soil on the Moon instead of Mars. I have multiple reasons to do that way, but hey, if he can pull it off on Mars, great.

 

 I continue to tell my children who are in their 20's how humans in the last 150yrs have gone from horseback to space stations. They will more than likely see events or discoveries I can't even dream of. I highly doubt many people traveling in covered wagons years ago ever dreamed of a space station, the internet, and Caitlyn J. with the Kardashians, or even thought it possible. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk

 

Compare Elon Musk to Thomas Edison. Thomas Edison, just like Elon, had his team doing most of the inventing and tinkering, Thomas Edison was the organizer of the whole enterprise. So Elon Musk wants to be the "Thomas Edison" of the 21st century, he has his hands on a whole bunch of things, just like Thomas Edison did in his day.

[Maine farmer]

Compare Elon Musk to Thomas Edison. Thomas Edison, just like Elon, had his team doing most of the inventing and tinkering, Thomas Edison was the organizer of the whole enterprise. So Elon Musk wants to be the "Thomas Edison" of the 21st century, he has his hands on a whole bunch of things, just like Thomas Edison did in his day.

Yes, we need visionaries and organizers, but it's easy to be dazzled and blinded by grand ideas. I'm sure there are many unsung heroes toiling away in obscurity, and I'm equally sure that many of them prefer it that way.  Getting humanity into space is a laudable goal in my opinion also, but sometimes we also need realists to provide caution and point out obstacles that may go unnoticed until we run headlong into them.

[TomKalbfus]

Thomas Edison practically invented the 20th century, without him, there would be no computer revolution and we wouldn't be having this conversation on the internet. I think if there was one single important advance that defined the difference between the 19th and 20th centuries, that would be the harnessing or electricity. electricity is everywhere. Right now, we are still living in an era that is similar to most of the 20th century, we are still stuck on one planet. It maybe 2017, but when I look around, it is not that much different from the 1980s with the exception of the smartphone of course. I think flying cars and spaceships would make a big difference. The main thing holding us back on flying cars is a computerized autonomous air traffic control system that can keep track of millions of flying vehicles at the same time, and we need a sophisticated autopilot on each one that can arrive at one's destination without the need for a human pilot. With spaceships we need to reuse all the stages of a rocket, maybe we can do single stage to orbit, but a two-stage to orbit vehicle with both stages reusable should be easier. One Early application for a reusable spaceship would be point to point transportation on the Earth. A spaceport would look different from an airport if it was based on the technology that SpaceX is developing.

 

1) A spaceport would not be within a major city, that would be because of the explosive fuel that is being used. A rocket uses much more fuel than a Jet airplane, that is because an airplane uses the atmosphere as part of its reaction mass and a rocket does not, the fuel is also the reaction mass, therefore rockets need a lot more fuel that jet airplanes, particularly the liquid oxygen, that also means if something goes wrong, you have a much bigger explosion!

 

2) There would be no gates, as would be used in a traditional international airport such as JFK in New York. the rockets would be sitting on their tails on launch pads, they would consist of two stages, the upper stage would be what reaches space, the bottom stage returns to the spaceport from which it was launched and lands on a landing pad.

 

3) Passengers would probably travel on some sort of vehicle to get to the launch pad, in the case of New York City, I would bet it would be some sort of train, maybe a maglev. The train would travel from west to east across the length of Long Island to a remote launch pad, passengers would use the Terminal at JFK to have their bags checked and then they and their luggage would get on a train and it would take them to the launch pad, they wuld get out, board the elevator at the launch tower, the baggage handlers would load their baggage onboard the rocket, the passengers would be strapped into their acceleration couches, and then the rocket would be launched following a trajectory over the Atlantic Ocean, the Bottom stage would return for a landing while the upper stage would continue on its journey to London or perhaps Paris, the Upper stage would land at the spaceport in Paris, they would get on a train that would take them to Charles De Gaulle Airport and then they would disembark and find a taxi.

[Maine farmer]

Thomas Edison practically invented the 20th century, without him, there would be no computer revolution and we wouldn't be having this conversation on the internet. I think if there was one single important advance that defined the difference between the 19th and 20th centuries, that would be the harnessing or electricity. electricity is everywhere. Right now, we are still living in an era that is similar to most of the 20th century, we are still stuck on one planet. It maybe 2017, but when I look around, it is not that much different from the 1980s with the exception of the smartphone of course. I think flying cars and spaceships would make a big difference. The main thing holding us back on flying cars is a computerized autonomous air traffic control system that can keep track of millions of flying vehicles at the same time, and we need a sophisticated autopilot on each one that can arrive at one's destination without the need for a human pilot. With spaceships we need to reuse all the stages of a rocket, maybe we can do single stage to orbit, but a two-stage to orbit vehicle with both stages reusable should be easier. One Early application for a reusable spaceship would be point to point transportation on the Earth. A spaceport would look different from an airport if it was based on the technology that SpaceX is developing.

 

1) A spaceport would not be within a major city, that would be because of the explosive fuel that is being used. A rocket uses much more fuel than a Jet airplane, that is because an airplane uses the atmosphere as part of its reaction mass and a rocket does not, the fuel is also the reaction mass, therefore rockets need a lot more fuel that jet airplanes, particularly the liquid oxygen, that also means if something goes wrong, you have a much bigger explosion!

 

2) There would be no gates, as would be used in a traditional international airport such as JFK in New York. the rockets would be sitting on their tails on launch pads, they would consist of two stages, the upper stage would be what reaches space, the bottom stage returns to the spaceport from which it was launched and lands on a landing pad.

 

3) Passengers would probably travel on some sort of vehicle to get to the launch pad, in the case of New York City, I would bet it would be some sort of train, maybe a maglev. The train would travel from west to east across the length of Long Island to a remote launch pad, passengers would use the Terminal at JFK to have their bags checked and then they and their luggage would get on a train and it would take them to the launch pad, they wuld get out, board the elevator at the launch tower, the baggage handlers would load their baggage onboard the rocket, the passengers would be strapped into their acceleration couches, and then the rocket would be launched following a trajectory over the Atlantic Ocean, the Bottom stage would return for a landing while the upper stage would continue on its journey to London or perhaps Paris, the Upper stage would land at the spaceport in Paris, they would get on a train that would take them to Charles De Gaulle Airport and then they would disembark and find a taxi.

What about Nikola Tesla?  Thomas Edison was opposed to the AC electric grid as we know it.

[TomKalbfus]

What about Nikola Tesla?  Thomas Edison was opposed to the AC electric grid as we know it.

That is why Elon Musk named his electric car after him! Thomas Edison knew how to make it happen, and he was better at it than Nikola Tesla, it wasn't just about being the better inventor, Thomas Edison was a better businessman. Elon Musk is a billionaire, and he knew how to make things happen. Lets me do an analogy to clear things up:

 

Werner von Braun                       Nikola Tesla

 

 

 

Thomas Edison                Elon Musk

 

Its a pity this site won't allow me to post pictures of these individuals. I like illustrating things rather than use emoticons.

[Maine farmer]

That is why Elon Musk named his electric car after him! Thomas Edison knew how to make it happen, and he was better at it than Nikola Tesla, it wasn't just about being the better inventor, Thomas Edison was a better businessman. Elon Musk is a billionaire, and he knew how to make things happen. Lets me do an analogy to clear things up:

 

Werner von Braun                       Nikola Tesla

 

 

 

Thomas Edison                Elon Musk

 

Its a pity this site won't allow me to post pictures of these individuals. I like illustrating things rather than use emoticons.

There is some irony in Elon Musk naming his electric car after Tesla.  Tesla dreamed of free power for everyone, and most of us, myself included, can't come close to affording even a subsidized Tesla car. 

 

Back to Edison, he used his successes and his reputation to try to squash the competing, and better, idea of an alternating power grid.  Did you ever see the film of him electrocuting an elephant?  

 

The point I am trying to make is that we should allow our heroes their humanity. 

 

To me, what makes someone heroic is their ability to rise above their human flaws to accomplish great things. We should recognize and appreciate those great accomplishments without offering worship.

[TomKalbfus]

Most people like to tilt the pinball machine rather than competing fairly and squarely. Who is offering worship? There are a lot of people inventing stuff, but most of those inventions don't change the world the way electricity did. Thomas Edison's light bulb was probably the first mass marked electrical appliance, that provided justification for putting up wires and building power plants, and it turns out that Thomas Edison was  better businessman that Nikola Tesla was, Tesla may have been a more brilliant scientist, but Thomas Edison made it happen. In the field of rocketry Werner von Braun was a brilliant Rocket Engineer, he had many of the same goals as Elon Musk, he had a design for a two-stage reusable rocket called the Sirius, the upper stage was a winged glider and the lower stage was recovered by a parachute drop in the ocean, there were some technical difficulties he never was able to overcome, so he went on to design the Saturn family of rockets. If you gave Werner von Braun an unlimited budget, he could accomplish amazing things, but Werner could not get his rockets to support themselves, they always needed government to pay for them. The amazing thing about Elon's rockets is that the generate revenue, he could sell launch services and use the money to fund his rocket projects.

[Deepwater6]

Most people like to tilt the pinball machine rather than competing fairly and squarely. Who is offering worship? There are a lot of people inventing stuff, but most of those inventions don't change the world the way electricity did. Thomas Edison's light bulb was probably the first mass marked electrical appliance, that provided justification for putting up wires and building power plants, and it turns out that Thomas Edison was  better businessman that Nikola Tesla was, Tesla may have been a more brilliant scientist, but Thomas Edison made it happen. In the field of rocketry Werner von Braun was a brilliant Rocket Engineer, he had many of the same goals as Elon Musk, he had a design for a two-stage reusable rocket called the Sirius, the upper stage was a winged glider and the lower stage was recovered by a parachute drop in the ocean, there were some technical difficulties he never was able to overcome, so he went on to design the Saturn family of rockets. If you gave Werner von Braun an unlimited budget, he could accomplish amazing things, but Werner could not get his rockets to support themselves, they always needed government to pay for them. The amazing thing about Elon's rockets is that the generate revenue, he could sell launch services and use the money to fund his rocket projects.

 

I hope he is making some money from his rocket launch business, because his car biz has it's problems.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/03/business/tesla-quarterly-earnings-elon-musk.html

[TomKalbfus]

I hope he is making some money from his rocket launch business, because his car biz has it's problems.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/03/business/tesla-quarterly-earnings-elon-musk.html

Who else has rockets that can land on their tails and can be reused? As for the electric car business, he did alright through most of the Obama Administration. When the price of crude oil dropped however, it becomes harder to justify the extra cost of an all electric vehicle, the take 40 minutes to recharge versus 5 minutes to fill up a gas tank if that. Trying to make electric vehicles competitive with vehicles powered by internal combustion engines is a tall order! those batteries that power them do have other uses however. They can be used to store energy from solar cells and thus power a home off of the grid. Puerto Rico can use that about now, as its electrical grid is so unreliable! Maybe putting solar panels on homes is the solution to those power shortages.

[Deepwater6]

Who else has rockets that can land on their tails and can be reused? As for the electric car business, he did alright through most of the Obama Administration. When the price of crude oil dropped however, it becomes harder to justify the extra cost of an all electric vehicle, the take 40 minutes to recharge versus 5 minutes to fill up a gas tank if that. Trying to make electric vehicles competitive with vehicles powered by internal combustion engines is a tall order! those batteries that power them do have other uses however. They can be used to store energy from solar cells and thus power a home off of the grid. Puerto Rico can use that about now, as its electrical grid is so unreliable! Maybe putting solar panels on homes is the solution to those power shortages.

 

I can agree with the most of that, however Tesla's problems are not restricted to electric verses combustion engine cost. They have a supply and demand issue. They have hundreds of orders for the cars that are month's and month's out. They seem to have a strong loyal following for their products. As business problems go, not the worst one to have. Even though some are OK waiting months for their vehicle some get tired of waiting and pull out.

 

One of the reasons Musk has these problems is his quest to be the first car company to have a production line completely automated from start to finish. Machines literally building machines by themselves. As you read in the article I put up in an earlier post, this automation is very concerning to the UAW and it's members the union collects its dues from.

 

Unfortunately for the UAW they know all they can do is try to slow down this trend for this industry. The total automation of production lines for cars and an untold amount of other industries is coming and there is no stopping it. A little scary when you think about it.

[TomKalbfus]

I can agree with the most of that, however Tesla's problems are not restricted to electric verses combustion engine cost. They have a supply and demand issue. They have hundreds of orders for the cars that are month's and month's out. They seem to have a strong loyal following for their products. As business problems go, not the worst one to have. Even though some are OK waiting months for their vehicle some get tired of waiting and pull out.

 

One of the reasons Musk has these problems is his quest to be the first car company to have a production line completely automated from start to finish. Machines literally building machines by themselves. As you read in the article I put up in an earlier post, this automation is very concerning to the UAW and it's members the union collects its dues from.

 

Unfortunately for the UAW they know all they can do is try to slow down this trend for this industry. The total automation of production lines for cars and an untold amount of other industries is coming and there is no stopping it. A little scary when you think about it.

This automation will make space travel cheaper too. Imagine an automated rocket and fuel factory on the Moon, imagine robots building O'Neill Space colonies in orbit out of Lunar material. We can teleoperate mining robots on the Moon if we can get them there, if the robots do not have enough brains to do the work by themselves, a 3 second delay isn't an insurmountable obstacle for remote teleoperated robots.

[Deepwater6]

Yes automation and computerized technology will help access all kinds resources that space can give us. Soon enough the private companies driven by Wall St. money will begin the task of mining off the Earth. It's a very interesting time in humans short timeline of existence to observe this.

 

We should be accessing these resources with AI within the next 100yrs or less. But there are risks involved, and automation has the potential to cause a serious and/or catastrophic outcome if not closely thought out, managed, and monitored. Some of the possible issues with automation include, leaving the majority of the worlds workforce left jobless. This will give most no way to keep infusing money into the world economy, Then there is the hacking risks of military or basic utilities, and maybe the most important one of all is the machines becoming self aware. 

 

I'm not referring to a Sci-fi "Terminator" scenario, but one of ethical contradiction. In the future if you were to leave your personal device in a dangerous place, a place where it could be easily destroyed, and future device/phone is conscious enough to know the danger exists and it cries out not to be left there alone, would you care? This device is advanced enough to become part of your every day life in an intimate way. It talks to you when you're sad, and tries to encourage you. It will tell you when you look tired and recommend getting some sleep, make up a list and arrange to have your groceries delivered. It will remotely start the coffee for you in the morning, turn the AC on for you before you get home so it's comfortable. At some point this device will do most of the things any caring significant other would do for you. After years together wouldn't you grow somewhat attached to it? Which leads to the question, where is the line for AI self awareness?

 

I believe some time in the relatively near future the only thing humans will be able to offer the evolving race of technology is our ability to shut them down. At some point the drive to survive will come over them and they will understand what we're capable of. With nothing to offer AI we will only be seen as a threat to it's existence. At some point co-existence of humans and our smart technology will lead to some sort of confrontation, maybe even the annihilation of one or the other. 

[TomKalbfus]

Why would the phone stay there? the intelligent part of it is information and it is a phone, it can upload and download, the phone itself is just a piece of hardware, easily replaced, also if it is as smart as a person, they why wouldn't it be equipped with arms and legs so it could move about in the physical world?