Saudi Size oil field Claim

[Qfwfq]

Is this *really* a devious conspiracy?

No. Of course it isn't!!!!!!!

 

And neither is it a convoluted train of logic spilling from the neocon's addled minds! :rolleyes:

 

It's a strategy, which your figures would only show to be even more convenient for Uncle Sam and that started well before the neocon times. Don't put your words into my mouth! The strategy is not only that of buying from OPEC before domestic sources are exausted or become less convenient, it also includes all means of having more control over foreign sources. Oil is fungible, that's the current neocon's argument, but they gloss over the difference between having more or less control over it.

 

If Texan and Alaskan oil have kept being pumped in the past couple of decades, it must be 'cause Uncle Sam couldn't just simply dictate to Texaco. However, in certain market situations, it can be convenient for those who sell to sell less quantity at a higher price. It all depends on those curves and on how few people control how much of the offer. Unlike the old comercial trick of hoarding, it's a much, much longer term strategy and it's about more than just getting an extra buck.

 

However, I found your figures somewhat surprising in view of how oil prices have been goind in the past years. How long ago was it that OPEC prices went soaring above the dreadful 30 mark?

[damocles]

All I can say is, if we're so cunningly tricking the Arabs into pumping themselves dry, why is it that not only did we, as you say, waste the last 33 years, but we're *still* wasting it now! Most of the money in the latest "energy" bill is subsidies to oil companies to keep pumping oil, with only token amounts to invest in all those lost opportunities that the arabs supposedly will miss out on.

 

See comments below.

 

Sounds like we're going to miss out on them too (actually the Chinese will get there first). So who is the brilliant geopolitical strategist that came up with this idea? We should give him a Medal of Honor! :rolleyes:

 

The Chinese don't have a navy worth mentioning(or the economy either). They are an export dependent, cheap(slave) labor dependent competitor. They are not that efficient.. The only sources of oil, to which they can guarantee access are the Central Asia fields and those are not as big as once thought. Everywhere else they will run into India and US. Do you really think they have a snowball's chance?

 

As erich sez, Oil *is* fungible, although you have to take into account the initial investments in infrastructure that are a significant barrier to entry. Honest, with the data in the articles you've cited you've got:

• Sulfurous yucky Arabian crude that spurts out of the ground and hops on its own into supertankers: $50/bbl, infrastructure in place, although it takes a bit more scrubbing.
  
• Texas light sweet crude that's got to be pumped from expensive oil rigs in the middle of the ocean cuz we've already pumped our own land wells dry: $65/bbl, but no scrubbing!
  
• Canadian oil tar: $35/bbl, but there's no infrastructure yet, so its really $100/bbl for the next 10 years.

Is this *really* a devious conspiracy?

 

Nope, that is economics.

 

And you forgot the

-Venuezuelan tar sands. Chavez sits on those.

-the Florioda coast fields Jeb Bush sits on those.

-and those Central Asian fields in which China is so interested and where U.S. and Russian companies now eagerly explore. A bunch of tinpot dictators and religious fanatics sit on those.

 

More stupidity to actually add to your side of the ledger.

 

This doesn't change the essential points.

 

Fungible commodity or not, the easily extractable oil is running out.

Even the neo-cons see we have to act differently.

Market forces are SLOWLY driving us into the correct vector.

And we have the infra-structure to adapt to meet the new conditions..

 

In the light of THAT fact; I find it puzzling that the Chinese are so eager to chase oil: when; if they were so smart, they could leapfrog to the next cycle of energy generating technology. Are they stupider than we are?

 

Still.......

 

We have ONE more chance to fix our mistakes. ONE.

 

The Arabs have none. And the Chinese seem bent on joining them in their folly. Let them.

 

After that, if we bungle this last opportunityy we have? Well I hope you like bycycles and steam engines. Forget about flying.

 

<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

Those remarks I wrote about above?

 

*Still, despite that, we buy the oil in such quantitry that the Arabs are looking at the same slope the United States faced in 1972 when we peaked production.

 

Unfortunately unlike us, they have no where to go.

 

They don't have fusion in their future.

They don't have solar.

They don't have fuel cells.

They don't have thermocouple heat chips.

They don't even have nuclear fission.

 

They are in a very bad way.

They've squandered their chance.

 

That doesn't mean we are exactly sitting pretty or very smart either. There are things we should have done.

 

That is the geo-politics.

 

The Arabs never INVESTED in the industrial base to have a shot at energy source replacement.

[Turtle]

[*]Canadian oil tar: $35/bbl, but there's no infrastructure yet, so its really $100/bbl for the next 10 years.

Is this *really* a devious conspiracy?

 

Cheers,

Buffy

 

___I watched a program on the Canadian oil mining & it looks to me like they have infrastructure 'oplenty in place & more going up. Mining is a gamble sure, but they must think this is a good one to go all in? :rolleyes:

[Buffy]

The Chinese don't have a navy worth mentioning(or the economy either). They are an export dependent, cheap(slave) labor dependent competitor. They are not that efficient.. The only sources of oil, to which they can guarantee access are the Central Asia fields and those are not as big as once thought. Everywhere else they will run into India and US. Do you really think they have a snowball's chance?

Actually, yup. Cheap labor is a *huge* benefit. They have very rapidly improving technology, they are very sophisticated about stealing it, they have a high degree of control over resources and their economy, and they'll probably get to the moon before we do again. I think the Chinese are in much better shape that the Indians! China is the seventh largest economy in the world. Ignore them at your peril!

 

Now on the whole, I actually agree with all the rest of what you're saying, the only thing I disagree with is the notion that there's some sort of conspiracy to "pump the arabs dry", which doesn't really make sense. Their oil fields may be slowing down, but they're still the largest in the world, there's been very little offshore exploration in the area (where there's probably even more), and these fields don't really ever *go dry*. We've still got lots of fields on land that have oil in them, but the technology required to extract the stuff from them is not economic at the present time. What has happened this year is that a bunch of land wells in Texas *have* been fired up, because at $65/bbl, they make lots of money, while at $35/bbl, they're better left capped.

 

Bottom line: I think all of these people are too stupid to conspiracy their way out of a paper bag (including the Chinese)!!!

 

Follow the money,

Buffy

[Buffy]

___I watched a program on the Canadian oil mining & it looks to me like they have infrastructure 'oplenty in place & more going up. Mining is a gamble sure, but they must think this is a good one to go all in? :rolleyes:

Sure! I'm not saying they're not doing it! If you're in it for the long haul, you're going to make gobs of money, and it makes sense to do so now if you're willing to bet on $100/bbl oil prices. They'd be stupid not to be investing in this now.

 

Conversely, "infrastructure 'oplenty" is in the eye of the beholder. I can assure you that they don't have enough processing bandwidth *right now* to handle all of our SUV's. Not that it couldn't be built, but the time and money has not been spent yet...it will, it will...

 

And up from the ground came a bubblin' crude,

Buffy

[damocles]

Actually, yup. Cheap labor is a *huge* benefit. They have very rapidly improving technology, they are very sophisticated about stealing it, they have a high degree of control over resources and their economy, and they'll probably get to the moon before we do again. I think the Chinese are in much better shape that the Indians! China is the seventh largest economy in the world. Ignore them at your peril!

 

I do not underestimate the Chinese. I NOTE that their recent technological advances have, unlike the Russians, come through THEFT. Example. Satellite launchers. The Russians solved that problem, themselves before WE did. The Chinese had to finagle the guidance technology from American aerospace companies to ensure reliable inertial guidance systems.

 

http://www.afa.org/magazine/aug1999/0899china.asp

 

Yet for all of Chinas's wholesale technology thefts and "advances" if you do a close comparison of Chinese versus INDIAN technology you will find that Indian technology is better class for class. That is no accident.

 

http://www.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=52805#compstory

 

The Chinese are not known historical innovators who exploit . Not so for the inventors of the ZERO.

 

Now on the whole, I actually agree with all the rest of what you're saying, the only thing I disagree with is the notion that there's some sort of conspiracy to "pump the arabs dry", which doesn't really make sense. Their oil fields may be slowing down, but they're still the largest in the world, there's been very little offshore exploration in the area (where there's probably even more), and these fields don't really ever *go dry*. We've still got lots of fields on land that have oil in them, but the technology required to extract the stuff from them is not economic at the present time. What has happened this year is that a bunch of land wells in Texas *have* been fired up, because at $65/bbl, they make lots of money, while at $35/bbl, they're better left capped.

 

The seas around the Persian Gulf have not been adequately surveyed, but I think you are wrong about the potential oil fields there. I expect them to be no larger than the ones in the Gulf of Mexico, if that large.

 

Bottom line: I think all of these people are too stupid to conspiracy their way out of a paper bag (including the Chinese)!!!

 

The Chinese governing class are communists. Government by conspiracy is the only way they know. Better hypothesis? They are too stupid to implement an economic program(as you suggest) is one the evidence supports. It is something of which, I assure you EXXON can never be accused(nor the U.S. government) when its back is to the wall, (as it will soon be as the voters howl.)

 

Follow the money,

 

Always when you discuss politics.

 

Best wishes from;

[biochemrex]

That China is currently spending $16 billion building synthetic petrol plant I think tells us a lot about the situation. In mining it is more a matter of manipulating the price of shares than any realistic value of the product. Well I suppose that is true for any comodity? Keith

[erich]

China's also doing this:Wired 12.09: Let a Thousand Reactors Bloom http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.09/china.html

[Qfwfq]

I can assure you that they don't have enough processing bandwidth *right now* to handle all of our SUV's.

Why should they? Now or in the future?

 

As for the "conspiracy against the Arabs", it's a very simple matter of "Do your shopping before you're out of groceries, especially if you suspect the shops might eventually be going low on stock themselves.". The idea of gaining control of a shop or two might also sound attractive to some.

 

Why have oil prices risen so much, in very recent times?

[damocles]

China's also doing this:Wired 12.09: Let a Thousand Reactors Bloom http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.09/china.html

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pebble_bed_reactor

 

PRC is known to have stolen this technology from

Germany

South Africa

Holland

and the United States.

[erich]

China: '" There are firm plans for thirty such plants by 2020 (6 gigawatts). "

 

Well at least they are doing these much safer plants, I still say the head line I hope to wake up to tomorrow is " China and US Join in New Manhattan Project for Clean Energy"

[damocles]

China: '" There are firm plans for thirty such plants by 2020 (6 gigawatts). "

 

Well at least they are doing these much safer plants, I still say the head line I hope to wake up to tomorrow is " China and US Join in New Manhattan Project for Clean Energy"

 

Agreed.

 

That is better than a war over OIL.

[Qfwfq]

Even if they design fool-proof reactors (not impossible if one really cares to imho), the question remains: what do you do with the radioactive waste? :doh:

[Turtle]

___To clarify your question in regard to the article from Wired:

 

"...pebble-bed reactor. A reactor small enough to be assembled from mass-produced parts and cheap enough for customers without billion-dollar bank accounts. A reactor whose safety is a matter of physics, not operator skill or reinforced concrete. And, for a bona fide fairy-tale ending, the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is labeled hydrogen.

 

Depleted balls can go straight into lead-lined steel bins in the basement."

 

___Sounds promising. :doh:

[erich]

Your right Turtle, the new pebble beds, with their "walk away" safety could solve the problem.

 

Even the likes of Stewart Brand (whole Earth cat. & CO-Evolution Quarterly) has come out full bore for them. The discrete waste is far better than ubiquitous CO2, and when we finally crack the next levels in physics, dark matter and energy, that waste may even be useful.

 

 

I think the big guys, GE , etc., are plenty on top of the fission efforts, much the same as ADM and Conagra are with Bio-fuels.

 

I guess the romantic side of my brain loves the elegance of the efficiencies starting to be found with quantum effects in these nano-scale devices and the total cleanliness of certain form of fusion.

 

Erich

[erich]

To get back on topic: This article talks of the efforts happening all around EDEN's prospect,

 

http://www.oilandgasstocknews.com/OGSN/Articles/Nevada.asp

 

Also this current news on Faskin:

 

" By: z-111

20 Sep 2005, 01:58 PM EDT

Msg. 1904 of 1976

(This msg. is a reply to 1903 by lookin4value.)

Jump to msg. #

11 to 13,000 feet. Eden is currently completing 2D high resolution surveys and will drill their first hole on the south end of their 53x7 mile parcel, and the second on the north end. Faskin just put a hole in 12 miles north and being private have kept it extreamly quiet, word is they have cased the well, which is something you don't do with a dry hole."

 

 

 

But , I guess they are all frauds too.:eek::doh:

 

Cheers,

Erich

[Eclogite]

Faskin just put a hole in 12 miles north and being private have kept it extreamly quiet, word is they have cased the well, which is something you don't do with a dry hole."

That is not strictly accurate. It is rare to drill any well in a single hole size. Multiple strings of casing are run within ever smaller hole diameters, to protect vulnerable aquifers, to provide structural integrity and to isolate zones. Only the final hole section would remain uncased if the well were considered dry. Consequently word that the well has been cased does not really tell us anything.