How near is our "end"?

[weakandpowerless]

Not talking about the Earth in general, but the human race.

[Jay-qu]

well if we make it past the point where we are in danger of blowing oursleves to pieces with nuclear weapons then we have ice ages, magnetic pole reverses, intersteller clouds (hydrogen and or dust), magnatars, local(within a few hundred light years) supernova, our own suns supernova, then the collision of andromeda galaxy with our own(not a large chance of colliding directly with another solar system but none-the-less a chance and then eventually if we make it through all that there is either the big crunch or cosmic heat death.

[Stargazer]

Homo Sapiens will not last forever, as evolution is a reality for us, too. It's also possible that we will completely change our own species with the help of computer technology, nanotechnology, genetics, etc. The unbroken line of intelligence that begun most likely in Africa will hopefully continue for a very long time, even if the species evolve with time. As Jay-qu mentioned, there are many dangers in this universe, but with science and technology, maybe we can protect ourselves from many of them.

[Jay-qu]

we have to hope to become smart enough fast enough so we can protect ourselves

 

its a race - us vs the universe... GO!

[nkt]

Homo Sapiens will not last forever, as evolution is a reality for us, too.

Evolution in humans is dead. Well, if you call evolution betterment or optimisation for something other than sitting on welfare eating chips all day...

It's also possible that we will completely change our own species with the help of computer technology, nanotechnology, genetics, etc. The unbroken line of intelligence that begun most likely in Africa will hopefully continue for a very long time, even if the species evolve with time. As Jay-qu mentioned, there are many dangers in this universe, but with science and technology, maybe we can protect ourselves from many of them.

If we can make it through the next 15 years without killing averyone, I'll be suprised, but if we do, it will only be an outside earth destroying event (very big rock, star goes out, aliens invade) that will wipe out our species. In 15 years, even nuclear war will not be the end of the human race. Of course, cracking AI just might be, and I give that 7 years.

[Vending]

Evolution in humans is dead. Well, if you call evolution betterment or optimisation for something other than sitting on welfare eating chips all day...

 

I don't think anyone calls evolution that. :) Evolution is quite simply defined as a change in the frequency of a particular (any one) genotype of a species over time. SO, humans are certainly evolving even today. The classic example is the increase in the sickle cell anemia gene in the continent of africa in response to the increase in malaria.

 

Anywho. As far as the end of humanity goes. I think the only way that we are a danger to ourselves is in our irresponsible use of our natural resorces. However, i seriously doubt that the greenhouse effect, or ozone holes or whatever people are flipping out about now is going to kill every last human. I think it much more likely that we will be wiped out by some cataclysmic event outside of our control. Like, a comet impacting us or something. There would need to be a rediculous amount of change on the earth all at once in order for us to disapear.

[C1ay]

Maybe tomorrow. All we need is a good supervolcanic eruption, an asteroid, a viral pandemic, a solar hiccup, etc.. Enjoy life and forget such uncontrollable distractions...

[CraigD]

Not talking about the Earth in general, but the human race.

The meaning of this question depends critically on what is meant by “the human race”.

 

If it means “the human species”, Homo sapiens sapiens, the answer is that the end is likely not very near, as human time scales go, but not very far, as geological ones go. 10 million years or so is a pretty long time for a species like ours to continue, and we’ve been around as long as 6 million or as little as 200,000 years, depending on you take on such things as the descent of HS sapiens from HS idaltu, so it’s reasonable to expect some sort of sub-speciation event resulting in the extinction of H. sapiens sapiens sometime in the next 5-10 million years. It’s also not unreasonable that a new HS subspecies might appear, and coexist with HSS, a situation that appears from the fossil record not unusual, and is found today with the various other species in the Hominidae family – chimps, gorillas, orangutans, etc.

 

Of course, clever as we are, we might eradicate ourselves (and possibly much or all life on earth) in much less time, or, as some people have suggested, use our technology to “end evolution”, locking us into a genetically similar species for hundreds of millions of years to come. Some weird combination of both outcomes might even be possible.

 

I think it makes more sense to take “the human race” to mean “human culture” – beings that think in ways we’d recognize as “human”, regardless of their genetics, and with some knowledge of history linking ancient and modern individuals and communities. In this sense, we’ve been around at least 5,000 years, a duration that might be thought of as growing as we learn more about our prehistory, up to the point that we can trace our ancestry back to individuals we cease to recognize as fellow human beings.

 

Taken in this sense, “humans” could be around for billions of years more, or maybe billions of billions of years. Future humans might be biologically little like present day ones (or perhaps not biological at all), existing as engineered biological organisms, robots, computer programs, or more exotic ways we have yet to imagine, yet possessing knowledge of and a sense of connection going back to biological human prehistory or even earlier.

 

Some bright folk, such as the controversial Frank Tipler, have suggested that humans in the far future might become so clever as to circumvent any long-term state of the universe that would make their existence impossible. In such as scenario, “our end” never comes. Though many of these folk, such as Tipler, are knowledgeable, trained, and respected scientists, most people think such speculation is just too far out to be taken as serious science. This is not to say they are not correct, just that it’s unlikely that Science will be able to provide a useful answer to such questions any time soon.

[Drip Curl Magic]

well if we make it past the point where we are in danger of blowing oursleves to pieces with nuclear weapons then we have ice ages, magnetic pole reverses, intersteller clouds (hydrogen and or dust), magnatars, local(within a few hundred light years) supernova, our own suns supernova, then the collision of andromeda galaxy with our own(not a large chance of colliding directly with another solar system but none-the-less a chance and then eventually if we make it through all that there is either the big crunch or cosmic heat death.

 

Don't forget pandemics.

[Drip Curl Magic]

I'm pretty sure that a pandemic is what's gonna screw our race over. I just have a feeling.... That something aweful is gonna spring up out of no where... and we're not gonna see it coming... and it'll kill all of us... and if not all of us, it would reduce the population by a jaw-dropping amount... and the few people left will die off from either depression or not having enough knowledge to re-start society. And then all the other animals on earth will eat us.

[FreQwhenSee]

Maybe it will be a "perfect storm" of disasters. Might it hit us from three fronts? I'll put my money on world war, pandemic, and a super volcanic eruption in 2012.

[GAHD]

It's closer now that when this thread was started. That's all I can say for certain.

 

Still, build a bomb shelter and stockpile food, little ant. I, the grasshopper, will just bounce around while summer is still here.

[jkellmd]

I'm pretty sure that a pandemic is what's gonna screw our race over. QUOTE]

 

If you're under sixty years old, a pandemic may be the best thing that ever happened to you. Young healthy adults will survive and be in reproductive demand, and the social security nightmare will disappear - no more geezers to support. Humanity will surely recover, but, alas, AARP may not survive.

[Drip Curl Magic]

Young healthy adults will survive.

 

I think it depends on the virus.