jkellmd Posted March 2, 2006 Report Posted March 2, 2006 Twice in the last two weeks, the news media has reported asteroids which have a decent probability of hitting earth - one as early as July. Since the stories haven't been followed up, I assume these are false threats. Are they scaremongering? http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/060301_asteroid_risk.html Quote
Queso Posted March 2, 2006 Report Posted March 2, 2006 well,I wouldn't worry.If it happens, we'll see some crazy stuff. Quote
Drip Curl Magic Posted March 2, 2006 Report Posted March 2, 2006 =] I'll have my camera ready.... just in case. Quote
Queso Posted March 2, 2006 Report Posted March 2, 2006 your pictures won't matter when we're obliterated. Quote
Jay-qu Posted March 2, 2006 Report Posted March 2, 2006 well maybe not.. depends how big they are! There was a funny thing that happened a few years back now, an asteroid passed between us and the moon! now thats close, the funny part is that we didnt see it till it had already gone past us! Quote
Queso Posted March 2, 2006 Report Posted March 2, 2006 funny...i never head anything about that. Quote
Jay-qu Posted March 2, 2006 Report Posted March 2, 2006 most people didnt! we have people searching the sky for rocks that are going to hit us, do you think they would easily admit that they found one that was dangerously close to earth after it had alread passed.. they would be shotting themselves in the foot! Quote
Qfwfq Posted March 2, 2006 Report Posted March 2, 2006 Where's the one that's as early as July? :hyper: I wouldn't call it scaremongering, it's cold scientific fact that asteroids occasionally pass near Earth. We're constantly bombarded by meteors and there's no reason a larger rock can't hit us, it's only a matter of probability. Quote
InfiniteNow Posted March 2, 2006 Report Posted March 2, 2006 Probability is right... We can calculate pretty well how close they will come, but there are always extraneous factors tough to account for in the calculations... The last "big chance" I read about was somewhere around 2020... They are working on ideas to take action, ala that Bruce Willis/Ben Afleck movie...just over the long term. A slight deflection would be enough if done properly... Quote
TheFaithfulStone Posted March 2, 2006 Report Posted March 2, 2006 Where's the one that's as early as July? Well, I'd say it's pretty close by, cosmically speaking. Where it is that article, I couldn't find. If we're slated for a hammering in 2020, now woud be the time to go get that asteroid. NOW we could probably go out and flick it with our finger and effect the orbit enough to miss us. In 15 or 20 years, it's gonna take a lot more juice to push it out of the way. TFS Quote
InfiniteNow Posted March 2, 2006 Report Posted March 2, 2006 Turns out it was 2029, but it appears that one is going to miss us by a few thousand miles... It is now clear that Apophis will miss Earth by a few thousand miles in 2029. But what of the estimated 200,000 asteroids we haven’t yet spotted? The world is woefully unprepared to deal with them. http://www.planetary.org/programs/projects/near_earth_objects/asteroid_alert/letter.html When Apophis passes us, its orbit will be dramatically altered. Right now, calculations suggest that all will be okay...but if the improbable happens, and its new solar orbit is just a few seconds more than the most likely prediction, then it will collide with Earth in 2036. And for every Apophis we know of, there may be dozens, perhaps hundreds, more. Despite the thousands of asteroids spotted and tracked so far, an estimated 200,000 of critical concern remain undiscovered. Quote
InfiniteNow Posted March 2, 2006 Report Posted March 2, 2006 If we're slated for a hammering in 2020, now woud be the time to go get that asteroid. NOW we could probably go out and flick it with our finger and effect the orbit enough to miss us. In 15 or 20 years, it's gonna take a lot more juice to push it out of the way.Thing is, it takes time to develope the technology and get that all in place. Money to make it happen too. Besides all that, you need to launch in a particular window to ensure that you are maximizing the gravity of surrounding planets to help us actually reach the asteroid (it's not like pointing a gun and shooting, but a bit more "circle here, come close over there, fire now, thrust there...." We would need to start a project of this sort immediately to make it possible to reach the asteroid in 15-20 years... Anyway, the 2029 is not as big a concern, but there are always others. Cheers. :shrug: Quote
arkain101 Posted March 3, 2006 Report Posted March 3, 2006 kerplow! http://www.astrosurf.com/lombry/Documents/asteroid-yucatan-dondixon.jpg http://www.shift-left.com/blogger/uploaded_images/asteroid-704615.jpg http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/c/cb/Impact_event.jpg/300px-Impact_event.jpg http://nssdcftp.gsfc.nasa.gov/miscellaneous/planetary/other/impact/jupiter_io_torus.jpg Quote
Qfwfq Posted March 3, 2006 Report Posted March 3, 2006 Turns out it was 2029, but it appears that one is going to miss us by a few thousand miles...A few thousand miles!!!! :hihi: I would hardly call that "safe"!!!! :hihi: At least a hundred thousand would be more like a certain miss. What I tend to doubt is the estimate being reliable over more than 20 years for an object that size, there must be a lot of unkown influences during the intervening time. Quote
Jay-qu Posted March 3, 2006 Report Posted March 3, 2006 Do they look out for if they may crash into the moon? albiet it would be much less likely, but possiblly just as devastating - ie worst cast senario, moon gets put into a declining orbit and earth now has X years to live (where X = small for big asteroid putting it into a fast declining orbit and etc..) Quote
Buffy Posted March 3, 2006 Report Posted March 3, 2006 Pretty much anything that's coming even 3-4 times the moons orbit seems to generate a news story in the general press predicting a "near miss"... If it was gonna clobber the moon, I'm pretty sure someone would bother to figure that out, but unless it was *really* big, its not going to throw the moon much out of its orbit: the inertia of the moon is unbelievably large.... Irresistable force,Buffy Quote
Turtle Posted March 4, 2006 Report Posted March 4, 2006 ___Here's an article clarifying how close Apophis is expected to approach Earth.Apophis, measuring 300 metres (1,000 feet) across and with a mass of less than 100 million tonnes, will fly by Earth at a distance of 36,350 km (22,600 miles) from the Earth's surface on April 13, 2029, slightly higher than the altitude of geosynchronous satellites, according to the website of the International Astronomical Union's Minor Planet Center. http://www.physorg.com/news11340.html___The article brings up Apophis in relation to a different asteroid, 2004 VD17...is about 500 metres (yards) long and has a mass of nearly a billion tonnes...The approach distance for this rock is not given, according to the article, but it is danger color code grade yellow, "meriting attention." :steering: Quote
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