Earth's Population

[C1ay]

How many people can the Earth support? Is population control an inevitable requirement to prolong our own existance? Are the world's shrinking resources like rainforests shrinking that magic number that the Earth can support? How fast are we approaching that number?

[Racoon]

How many people can the Earth support? Is population control an inevitable requirement to prolong our own existance? Are the world's shrinking resources like rainforests shrinking that magic number that the Earth can support? How fast are we approaching that number?

 

Exponentially Fast!! :) :) ;)

Earth clocked 6.5 Billion hungry mouths just a week or so ago.

 

Consider we've added 1.5 Billion minds and bodies since 1987.

It took from 1650 AD pop. ~ 500 million

to 1930 AD pop. ~ 2 Billion to grow the population by 1.5 big ones

 

Projected Population for 2050 is at least 9.3 Billion!

Some experts believe the Earth can support up to 12 Billion, with a reasonable standard of living for many

 

I don't think the Earth can sustain the population at the rate we are using Resources past 7 Billion. if that?

 

My Quote of the day was Ben Franklin's

"Its not until the well runs dry that we know the worth of water"

 

If Desalinization, and Solar power can be widely implemented cost effectively

+ Deforestation ceases

then the world can still hold promise! ;)

[InfiniteNow]

How many people can the Earth support?

Depends on how we treat it, and how efficiently we utilize our limited resources.

 

Is population control an inevitable requirement to prolong our own existance?

Unless we find another space into which we can spread, then I'd have to say yes. However, population control may be less of a choice and more of mother nature reattaining balance (i.e. an unplanned mass extinction event)

 

Are the world's shrinking resources like rainforests shrinking that magic number that the Earth can support?

Yes, definitely. The amount of available resources, as well as how we use them as mentioned above, is probably the key determining factor to this equation.

 

How fast are we approaching that number?

Too fast... our population is like a meth-head on fourteen cups of espresso trying to outrun a police officer on a motorcycle with turbochargers.

 

 

Stupid analogy... sorry. Watched formula 1 racing this weekend...

 

 

Thing is, not too many people (at least with whom I've interacted) would be willing to take steps to assist. How many people you know w/lower SES are going to stop popping out kids for the good of the planet?

 

The balloon which is our environment is only so elastic, and if we put enough air into it, it's gonna pop sooner or later...

[Queso]

Overpopulation is inevitable seeing as how it's already occured.

 

My only wonder now is what the earth is going to do to wipe us out?

 

Or will it be Us, this time? Product of the earth destroying self massively FOR EARTH.

Solve et coagula?

I think so.

I know so.

 

Just, How?

Is all I'm curious about.

 

And when, but meh

I don't really care about when.

[Cedars]

I dont know what the estimated numbers are for population support. I think with increasing/new technologies being implemented in many regions, the estimates of a maximum population support will have to be adjusted upwards again and again. Unless other factors prohibit the advantage of these new or imported technologies. Sometimes its the simple changes that impact the ability of a country to feed itself, such as drought resistant corns, shorter growing seasons for various types of food, hybrids that allow a country to produce much more of that crop on its own, etc.

 

I think some countries will have to implement some kinds of population controls. Maybe not as China has, but something along that line. But what measures should a government take to implement such controls? If I remember right, there was outrage on many levels over Chinas mandate regarding children. I am sure in the USA there would be alot of resistance to such a measure being discussed, let alone implemented.

 

I also think different countries are going to have to look at what extremes should technology be used to prolong life. I am not sure the birthrate is as much of a problem as the life expectancy rate increasing world wide. For some of these countries with really high birth rates, I dont know that the survival rate of these children is great enough to tip the balance, so to speak. Resources do not become exhausted by being born. They become exhausted by longer lifetimes.

[InfiniteNow]

Can you imagine the birth of your beautiful baby daughter, and the government forcing you to kill her? Yeah... that'd go over well. :hihi:

 

 

It's a serious question that C1ay has posed, and a simple answer seems elusive.

[C1ay]

I think some countries will have to implement some kinds of population controls. Maybe not as China has, but something along that line. But what measures should a government take to implement such controls? If I remember right, there was outrage on many levels over Chinas mandate regarding children. I am sure in the USA there would be alot of resistance to such a measure being discussed, let alone implemented.

That's all true but, the population is growing exponentially and the planet is not. It seems that there will come a time when population control becomes necessary for our survival.

[Cedars]

Can you imagine the birth of your beautiful baby daughter, and the government forcing you to kill her? Yeah... that'd go over well. :hihi:

 

 

It's a serious question that C1ay has posed, and a simple answer seems elusive.

 

Easy to google history of population control in china:

 

http://www.columbia.edu/~bcp26/web-pages/policy.html

[Racoon]

Humans may populate themselves out of existence by environment or war or both...

 

But there will remain other 'Populations'...

 

Ant's, roaches, viruses, bacteria, etc.....

[C1ay]

Then again, the next eruption of a super volcanoe is inevitable. At some point in time it will cause a significant population reduction, if not our extinction....

[CraigD]

How many people can the Earth support?

Approaching the question purely as an engineering one, starting with the Earth’s total solar budget (1.75*10^17 W) and the metabolic needs of a human being (about 100 W) we can place an upper limit of about 1.75*10^15, about 250,000 times its current population. This is still a minuscule fraction of the Earth’s mass of about 8*10^22 human beings, so not really a lot in terms of mass. Energy seems to be the limiting factor. This maximum population results in about 3.5 humans per square meter of surface (including oceans), well within reasonable limits of building “stacking”.

 

This upper limit assumes perfect energy efficiency converting solar radiation into human metabolism, a wildly unrealistic assumption, but it still provides an upper limit. Any technology advanced enough to approach this efficiency would likely be handling solar power many times greater than the Earth’s solar budget, though, so realistically, this upper limit may be many time too low.

[Cedars]

That's all true but, the population is growing exponentially and the planet is not. It seems that there will come a time when population control becomes necessary for our survival.

 

I agree that it would be nice for countries to reduce the population numbers. It does seem that the birth rate is falling:

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3560433.stm

 

and a more detailed breakdown of the above here:

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldpop.html

 

Appendix A has lots of tables:

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/wp02.html

 

Now I am not sure how accurate all this is. Some of these countries have to be nearly impossible to get absolutes for these numbers. But its what we have to work with.

 

Population control must include the high end also. Many of our societies are set up where younger contributors support older persons. If we reduce the number of youth by decreasing births without impacting the average life span, the balance will be broken as equally as having uncontrolled birth rates.

 

If these numbers hold true, I am not sure we would hit the ceiling before balance is achieved.

[Cedars]

Humans may populate themselves out of existence by environment or war or both...

 

But there will remain other 'Populations'...

 

Ant's, roaches, viruses, bacteria, etc.....

 

Yep! Many species have risen and fallen in the history of the earth.

 

Just imagine if cats had opposable thumbs.

Or roaches...

 

Would we have ever climbed down from the trees?

:hihi:

[InfiniteNow]

A thought occurred to me this morning... Pertaining to the resources side of this...

 

Maybe our greed for food and evolved mechanisms for fat storage and desire for sugar... will do us some good as regards population increase. While we eat and eat and eat away at our resources, it's also killing us. Balance indeed. :cup:

 

 

What I mean is, while we are going all locust on earth's crops and supplies, we're also experiening higher incidence of heart disease and cancer. Seriously, who needs a burger with donuts for buns? :hihi:

 

 

Mmmm... donut burger. Gimme a break!

 

 

(my blood sugar is low and I'm waiting for the granola bar to integrate with my system and restore some balance... sorry if this post isn't as together as it could be)

[anglepose]

People are having less babies now as they dont see the neeed for so many earths population cant currently support itself

[InfiniteNow]

People are having less babies now as they dont see the neeed for so many earths population cant currently support itself

Perhaps on average and per capita... but the number of "capitas" is increasing logrithmically.

[Turtle]

How many people can the Earth support? Is population control an inevitable requirement to prolong our own existance? Are the world's shrinking resources like rainforests shrinking that magic number that the Earth can support? How fast are we approaching that number?

 

I think we have too many variables at play here to make a projection as to 'how many', 'when', or 'where' human population crashes, but a crash is inevitable if people do nothing to forestall it.

Even in the circumstance of some 'ideal' number of people, all it takes is a supervolcano, plauge, asteroid impact, or some similar large disaster to either destroy all people or send the few survivors back into stone age living.