Y2K hype...

[InfiniteNow]

  Buffy said:

Now, Now, Now...

:hihi:

 

 

:applause: :cheer: :applause:

 

 

:cocktail:

[CraigD]

Somehow, despite having been an exalted Y2K guru (I kid you not, months into 2000, I learned that I actually had Y2K project groupies – though having groupies but being totally unaware of it rather defeats the whole concept of a groupie), I’ve missed out on this thread ‘til now – or maybe I avoided it out of acquired, unconscious aversion to anything with “Y2K” in its title. ;)

 

So here’s a bit of niche technical trivia: for applications written in the MUMPS language (including repackaged & renamed implementations such as Intersystems Cache), a major, or possible the major “Y2K” problem will actually occur in 2010. This is because, when a 2-digit year is used for collating (ordering) purposes in a MUMPS global or local variable, the non-canonic numbers “00”, “01” … “09” collate after canonic ones like “10”, “60” and “99”. “10” is the first 2-digit year that will collate before “99”.

 

Given the awesome sums of cash spent in Y2K projects, and the failure for a gratifying catastrophe to ensue – our Y2K project is where my org got goodies from its shortwave ethernet gear to a satellite TV hookup (to watch the end of the world on CNN, from our “command center”), not to mention the most egregious bonus I’ve personally ever gotten – I doubt there will be a 2010 project to speak of in the MUMPS world. Anything that does break should be easy to fix – not really Armageddon/Ragnarok -class problems. The Y2K mega-projects should have gotten all the 2-digit years out of 99%+ of the MUMPS data existent. There is, however, a small, technical possibility that something will break in a date-related manner when 1/1/2010 begins to appear.

 

  Buffy said:

If the data type for Rep Power was a "tiny int"--one byte--many of us would have lit the Tilt light back at 256.

…

Most likely its an int--4 bytes--so the Universe is likely to disintegrate before it is a problem...

Ah, another worthy intuition (Buffy’s) falls victim to undervaluing the nature of exponential growth!

 

As anyone who’s noticed that pale-blue-bar only rep bars are becoming increasingly rare has likely noticed, as the average rep power of hypgraphers swells, so does the rep growth rate. Based on a simple model where number of members is constant (not the grand hypography mission plan!), 1K of rep power appears after 38 rep-giving cycles, 1M after 76, 1G after 114, and the 2[math]^{32}[/math] crash barrier after 122. Guestimating the current era of hypography’s start date at 7/2005, this gives a 32-bit doomsday of late 2014. Assuming a linear membership growth, it falls to mid 2012. Assuming an exponential membership growth, if falls to late 2010.

 

Increasing the number of bits won’t postpone it much – 32-bit doomsday is 3.5 years off, 64-bit, 4.75 y, 512-bit in 11 y. In 2600 years, it’ll be impossible to store a typical rep power in 2[math]^{30}[/math] bits – that is, on a 1GB storage device

 

We better revamp our rep system pretty soon, eh?

[TheFaithfulStone]

Mark Twain was once asked what the greatest invention of mankind was.

 

Answer: Compound Interest.

 

TFS

[Buffy]

  CraigD said:

Ah, another worthy intuition (Buffy’s) falls victim to undervaluing the nature of exponential growth!

 

As anyone who’s noticed that pale-blue-bar only rep bars are becoming increasingly rare has likely noticed, as the average rep power of hypgraphers swells, so does the rep growth rate. Based on a simple model where number of members is constant (not the grand hypography mission plan!), 1K of rep power appears after 38 rep-giving cycles, 1M after 76, 1G after 114, and the 2[math]^{32}[/math] crash barrier after 122. Guestimating the current era of hypography’s start date at 7/2005, this gives a 32-bit doomsday of late 2014. Assuming a linear membership growth, it falls to mid 2012. Assuming an exponential membership growth, if falls to late 2010.

 

Increasing the number of bits won’t postpone it much – 32-bit doomsday is 3.5 years off, 64-bit, 4.75 y, 512-bit in 11 y. In 2600 years, it’ll be impossible to store a typical rep power in 2[math]^30[/math] bits – that is, on a 1GB storage device

Isn't inflation just totally sucky?

 

The Future Value of nothing is still nothing,

Buffy

[TheBigDog]

  Buffy said:

The Future Value of nothing is still nothing,

Buffy

There is already a thread for that discussion! :shrug:

 

Bill