Comet fragment closer than 5.5 million miles

[cyclonebuster]

The one element in 61 that you have tunnel vision on has and error of more than 2 decimal places compared to the mean of the rest of the dataset in the Minimum Miss Distance column while the Nominal Miss Distance column is consistant with the other elements of the set. You can in fact sort by the other data columns and fragment 3-BD lies neatly with the group. Only someone ignorant in statistics would swear by the accuracy of the odd figure given for this fragment in the minimum miss distance column. Now, back up your claim and PROVE the accuracy of the given value. Keep in mind rule 4 while you're at it:

 

I for one will be interested in your demonstration of statistics in proving the probability that the given data is correct...

 

Simple Fragment BC has a sigma of 176 while Fragment BD has a sigma of 3. Bingo another mistake I presume??Not likely!!!

[cyclonebuster]

Fragment count up to 64 now!

 

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db_shm?sstr=73p&group=all&search=Search

[C1ay]

Simple Fragment BC has a sigma of 176 while Fragment BD has a sigma of 3. Bingo another mistake I presume??Not likely!!!

Nope. That still doesn't prove the value is correct, a value that doesn't agree with the other data in the set. It varies by 2 significant digits in the column you want us to believe. That's like accepting a temperature report from a weather balloon of a 1000 degrees when all of the surrounding temperatures are below 100. If you're willing to accept such a wild variation as an accurate value without the ability to prove that it is true then perhaps you should pursue something other than science.

[cyclonebuster]

Nope. That still doesn't prove the value is correct, a value that doesn't agree with the other data in the set. It varies by 2 significant digits in the column you want us to believe. That's like accepting a temperature report from a weather balloon of a 1000 degrees when all of the surrounding temperatures are below 100. If you're willing to accept such a wild variation as an accurate value without the ability to prove that it is true then perhaps you should pursue something other than science.

 

You believe what you want and in the meantime I'll believe what NASA says!! When I see the numbers change then I will believe you!!!

[goliathan]

C1ay, cyclonebuster, Tormod,

 

You should be chastised for scorning valid data. The OP was trying to point out rightly that JPL and NASA, and it has been verified, indeed have claimed that there is a .3% chance of SW-3 BD coming to within 1/25 of an LD of earth. So eat that you arrogant pricks!

[goliathan]

:shrug:

[C1ay]

So eat that you arrogant pricks!

Bye...

[cyclonebuster]

Bye...

 

i DON'T GET WHAT HE IS SAYING? Any help here appreciated??

[CraigD]

Abandoning for a moment the debate on interpreting the neo.jpl.nasa data, this 3/24/06 NASA article puts 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann into perspective. The break-up of this comet is a fascinating event, and seems to have comet scientists scrambling to explain the mismatch between computer modeled and observed data.

 

Returning to the data-interpreting debate…

From my read of http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/neo_ca?type=NEC;type=NEC;hmax=all;tlim=recent_future;dmax=0.1AU;max_rows=200;fmt=full;action=Display%20Table;show=1&sort=dist_min&sdir=ASC, I can’t see any reason to dismiss it as erroneous. What it appears to say it that 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD has a small, but larger any other near-Earth-object, chance of grazing or impacting the Earth. According to the legend on the neo.jpl.nasa page, this chance is given by a “n-sig” of “3”. Unfortunately, they don’t appear to explain this term well, and the term is ambiguous in the statistical convention. The most likely meaning, IMEO, is the probability of a point 3 standard deviation or more from mean (about 0.26998%). A more common but less likely in this context meaning is 0.001% or 0.0001%.

 

I’m unable in the little time I have right now to get a description of the likely mass of 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD more precise than “house-sized” (per http://www.solarviews.com/eng/wachmann.htm), so can’t make much of a prediction of what the unlikely event of an earth impact of it would be like. Since its nearest approach is today, such a prediction would be rather late – we’ll soon know the outcome for a fact.

 

The main debris cloud isn’t expected to intersect Earth, so an observable meteor shower isn’t expected. Living close to light-polluted Washington, DC, it’d have to be a pretty impressive shower for me to be able to see it. :hyper: Maybe conditions will be better in 2022.

[cyclonebuster]

As you can see meteor activity is very high with this comet that has fragmented into millions of pieces. Why the media black out when such proof exists?

 

http://www.tvcomm.co.uk/radio/live.html