2006 Hurricane Season predictions

[Colby]

I'm a hurricane fanatic, and have been for a long time, so I'm excited about the upcoming season. I wanted to post my own forecast, and see what others think. Note - the following is absolutely and completely unofficial and entirely my own opinion.

 

Early Seasonal Forecast for 2006

Amateur Hurricane Center

http://www.theahc.webhop.net

Issued March 9, 2006, Valid through December 31, 2006.

Written by AHC Forecaster Colby

 

 

 

A highly active season is anticipated. Additionally, with a fairly strong La Niña in place and strengthening, the likelihood of another season of frequent landfalls is likely. It should be emphasized here that I have neither the experience nor the resources of Dr. William Gray and Philip Klotzbach, and that from a scientific perspective my forecast is somewhat less valid (less editing, time spent, research, and experience). That being said, I anticipate a very active and destructive year in 2006. My reasoning, with forecast effects in parenthesis, is as follows:

 

Preseason Activity: Several Atlantic Ocean systems have had signficant potential to develop so far this year. One, in the northwest Caribbean Sea, moved inland in an otherwise favorable enviornment. A second, over the eastern Atlantic, was an extratropical cutoff low which was unable to fully transition (as Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta of 2005 did), because of extremely cold (<20°C) water temperatures. A third system, this one in March, was a cutoff low that stalled briefly in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Convection approached the center, and an approximately half-closed surface circulation developed, but a strong blast of wind shear dissipated the system. Given this extraordinary activity, I would anticipate 1-2 storms before the beginning of Hurricane Season on June 1. Also anticipated is activity through June and July, where in an average season only 2 named storms would have formed. (+1 named storm)

 

La Niña: A fairly weak La Niña developed in late 2005, and continued to strengthen through January and February 2006. More recent data shows that it has become quite strong, and although La Niña does not have as strong a correlation to hurricane activity as El Niño does, it will likely still have a positive effect on the number of storms. Also a symptom of recent La Niña events was an unusually far west Bermuda High. This enhances Cape Verde activity, which produces long-tracking and often intense systems. It also enhances the chance of an East Coast strike, causing damage and loss of life. It is still important to note that these are merely correlations, and may or may not show themselves in the hurricanes of 2006. (+4 named storms, +2 hurricanes, +1 major hurricane)

 

East Coast ridging: A strong ridge is in place along the east coast at the time of this writing, much earlier than is normal. Global models indicate the ridge to stay where it is for weeks or more, and this sort of strong ridging right from Hurricane Season's start will likely enhance activity, especially when boosted by the already noted effects of La Niña. (+2 named storms, +1 hurricane)

 

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: The AMO has been in a clear active phase since 1995. In the past 10 years, only one year had 10 storms or fewer, and that was under the influence of a very strong El Niño. Hence, the 'normal' activity this forecast will be based on is the 'normal' of the past ten years - or 16.5 storms per year. If 2005 is counted as an outlier, the average is 13.8 storms per year. Since 2005 was the last data available, and because it is not known whether 2005 was the beginning of a trend or not, I will use 15 named storms as a starting point. Hurricane average is 9 including 2005, or 7.5 without. I will use 8. There have been 38 major hurricanes, leaving 2005 as an outlier, giving 3.8 major hurricanes. Using 2005 yields exactly 4 major hurricanes per year. I will use 4. (Named storm average = 15, Hurricane average = 8, Major hurricane average = 4)

 

Potential Trends: 2005 was a very severe year, far more so than expected, and broke some of the longest-standing records in the Atlantic. Some notable ones (and the storms that smashed them) - Hurricane Gilbert's 888mb pressure (Wilma, 882mb), 1933's 21 named storms (Alpha-Zeta, total 27), Andrew's $50 billion inflation adjusted damage (Katrina, $100+ billion, exact cost unknown), Hurricane Alice's latest storm record (Zeta, January 6) and dozens of others fell. Though this may or may not be a trend, I believe it best to include an addition based on massive activity of 2005. (+1 named storms, +1 hurricane)

 

Sea Surface Temperatures: Very warm surface temperatures prevail across the west Atlantic, warmer even than 2005 in some areas. While it is too early to really tell whether they will persist, they will likely remain warm enough to provide great fuel to storms that do form. (+2 named storms, +2 hurricanes, +1 major hurricane)

 

With all these factors considered, my numbers for the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season are as follows:

Named Storms: 26 (approximately 260% of long-term average)

Hurricanes: 14 (approximately 240% of long-term average)

Major Hurricanes: 6 (approximately 240% of long-term average)

 

Early Seasonal Forecast April Update

Amateur Hurricane Center

http://www.theahc.webhop.net

Issued April 4, 2006, Valid through December 31, 2006.

Written by AHC Forecaster Colby

 

Slightly less than a month after the issuance of the original forecast, a strong La Niña remains in place. However, Atlantic atomalies have been slowly cooling over the same period. A review of each of the original forecast factors is as follows:

 

Preseason Activity: I remain of the belief that it is likely a pre-season storm will form, with odds of perhaps 70%. This factor remains unchanged after five close calls.

 

La Niña: Though La Niña remains strong, it appears to be having little effect on Atlantic SSTs. Therefore, the original effect of +4 named storms, +2 hurricanes, and +1 major hurricane is being reduced to +3 named storms, +1 hurricane. (-1 named storm, -1 hurricane, -1 major hurricane)

 

East Coast Ridging: A very strong ridge has remained in place along the east coast for nearly the entire winter. Though broken a few times by a strong front or low pressure system, it has remained mostly unchanged off the coast of Florida with pressures as high as 1025mb. This is borne out by an exceptionally dry winter in Florida, with nearly all the inland rain coming from a single front in late February. This factor remains unchanged.

 

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: The AMO is unchanged.

 

Potential Trends: No change to this factor, since several systems have shown worrying signs of tropical development this winter, I see no reason to remove the slight increase from potential trending.

 

Sea Surface Temperatures: Surface Temperatures have cooled sharply in the week preceeding this writing, but it is not yet know if this is a trend. This factor will be reduced by half, based on that possibility. (-1 named storm, -1 hurricane)

 

With all these factors considered, my numbers for the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season are as follows:

Named Storms: 23 (approximately 230% of long-term average)

Hurricanes: 12 (approximately 190% of long-term average)

Major Hurricanes: 5 (approximately 200% of long-term average)

[UncleAl]

Uncle Al is going to be a simpleton wag. If West Africa is dry and a lot of dust blows west to nucleate precipitation, big hurricane season. If West Africa is wet and blown dust levels are low, small hurricane season. "8^>)

 

Every year we get pummeled by Official Truth about Mississippi nutrient discharge causing massive stagnant anoxic dead zones in the Gulf of Mexico. In 2005 things were nicely mixed by a record string of hurricanes and the bastards still complained.

[Colby]

Uncle Al is going to be a simpleton wag. If West Africa is dry and a lot of dust blows west to nucleate precipitation, big hurricane season. If West Africa is wet and blown dust levels are low, small hurricane season. "8^>)

 

Every year we get pummeled by Official Truth about Mississippi nutrient discharge causing massive stagnant anoxic dead zones in the Gulf of Mexico. In 2005 things were nicely mixed by a record string of hurricanes and the bastards still complained.

 

Dust provides excellent condensation nuclei, but remember that most Atlantic dust comes from the Sahara. Dust from the Sahara comes with air from the Sarhara - i.e., very very dry. Dry air is bad for hurricanes :thumbs_up

[W.Davidson]

Colby,

The main factor for hurricane formation is sea surface temperatures. SSTs in the tropical North Atlantic are slightly above average at the moment, but nowhere near as warm as last year. Unless you have a crystal ball which shows SSTs rising dramatically, I don't see how you can predict a violent season. The other factors you mention are collectively less important than the temperature of the ocean's surface.