Fuel prices...

[Boerseun]

So what gives with the price of fuel? :hihi:

 

It keeps on rising and rising, with no end in sight! Is it really trouble in the Middle East? If so, then oil supply prices would rocket to such an extent that oil companies won't have to pay this newfangled 'profiteering tax', simply because they're not profiteering, they're just battling with rising prices like the rest of us. But no, they have made so much profit on the back of the rising oil price that it justifies an additional tax.

 

So what's the actual story? Have we passed Hubbert's Peak? Is there any hope in sight for lowered prices? Or are we being sucked dry by Big Oil?

[Racoon]

So what gives with the price of fuel? :hihi:

 

So what's the actual story? Have we passed Hubbert's Peak? Is there any hope in sight for lowered prices? Or are we being sucked dry by Big Oil?

 

I think you already know the answer to that.

They can charge what they want, within the high spectrum of reasoning.

Its simple supply/demand economics.

 

Yes, we are going to be bled dry. As economies in India and China expand and modernize, they will be competing for the same resource. If we, in the West, are willing to pay more, then we will continue to get the Fuel...

 

The good thing is that this will furiously spur on Alternatives, and we are beginning to see real application of those alternatives :hihi: and hopefully soon, actual implementation.

 

Whats the Big Mac index at??

 

Profits above all else,

Rac

[Mercedes Benzene]

It's just the stupid oil companies.

In fact, the three largest companies in the world (based on annual revenue) are:

Royal Dutch Shell Ltd.

Exxon Mobile Corp.

BP

...in that order.

 

THE TOP 3 LARGEST COMPANIES IN THE WORLD ARE OIL COMPANIES.

 

They are the ultimate monopoly giants in the global business realm, and it's their fault for jacking up the cost of gas beyond what it actually should be.

Cheers to big business!:)

[Buffy]

Evil oil companies....sorta. Actually, the thing is that there's the commodities markets in the middle: while the oil companies can do things to manipulate the scarcity (mostly of refined gas: remember that most of the oil in the ground is controlled (at least by proxy) by nationalized producers), the big run up has *everything* to do with speculators looking at the tight production capacity, war, threat of war, crazy dictators, and putting them *together* to think that their petroleum futures will be worth more tomorrow.

 

Its a lemming mentality though, so its self-reinforcing trend actually helps create a bubble. Its pretty clear that there's still excess capacity, but their betting on Israel invading Syria, or Iran setting off a nuke or Chavez locking up Venezuelan oil, or lots of other relatively remote scenarios, that *could* make them rich. The down side is if there are cracks in this "conventional wisdom" we'll see a crash. I read a quote from the chairman of BP saying the price will come down significantly in the next couple of years, and that disregarding the "risk factors" oil is worth $40/bbl. With the speculators driving up the price of crude, the oil companies can laugh all the way to the bank because they are middlemen, safely taking a cut from everyone.

 

I do think there's ample evidence that they are manipulating the supply of *refined* gas, through mechanisms that are "legal" (putting refineries in maintenance at exactly the wrong time). In addition, I don't believe there's a "conspiracy" or "collusion", because if you have a small enough number of players in a market, it is to their advantage not to be predatory, and therefore they will simply "do the right thing" (for themselves!) without *any* need for explicit conspiracy....*Any* volitility in the price of crude means fast rises and slow falls of refined petroleum, so the oil companies don't need (indeed don't want *because* it brings demands for windfall profits taxes) crude at $70/bbl...

 

Crudely efficient markets,

Buffy

[Michaelangelica]

So what gives with the price of fuel? :eek:

 

It keeps on rising and rising, with no end in sight!

 

The truth is we have probably run out of oil and no one wants to tell us.

 

You now have to pump more water down the wells to get the oil up than is worth the effort.

 

Invest in hydrogen technology.

[Buffy]

The truth is we have probably run out of oil and no one wants to tell us.

That depends on what the meaning of "run out" is. The best description I've ever heard to try to get the point across is that its like eating a bowl of cereal with a fork: it gets harder and harder to get the stuff out of the bottom of the bowl, but there's still lots there.

 

The main issue is what is called Peak Oil. Malthusians of every stripe are always predicting the "end of the world," but like the cereal in the bowl, you can get it, you just may have to work harder. You may also find another box of cereal to refill the bowl. While most experts do not *expect* there to be huge Saudi-size deposits left to be found, there's probably more than will be necessary for most of us to die before the internal combustion engine disappears. There are also some very unusual sources of non-petroleum fossil fuels lying around like methane hydrates found on the ocean floor.

 

Of course we have a whole thread on the tar fields in places like Canada which are traditional crude oil, albeit in a form that is only worthwhile when the price of crude rises above $40/bbl (and less over time as the investment in learning how to exploit it is amortized), and there's an unbelievable amount of this stuff.

 

So B is right: there's not really a good excuse for the crazy price of gas.

 

All I can say is that the really smart money is moving from oil to tulips. :)

 

Modern Popular Delusions, :eek:

Buffy

[IDMclean]

I will point out a major player in the growing price.

 

It is simply the laws of supply and demand.

 

As oil consumption grows (at an alarming rate, I would like to find the info again but I believe it was like doubled consumption per decade.), and with the industrialization of several major players, who will over take the world's economic powers, namely India and China, the consumption rates are just going to leap either geometrically, or expodentially.

 

At the same time, the number of new sources being discovered, decrease, and the ammount of worth while oil shrinks.

 

Our Supply to Demand ratio greatly begins to sag towards one side.

 

I predict that our oil reserves, world wide, will exhaust in or before 2020. Luckily that will also be our level out point, roughly, where world-wide population should go into decline.

 

We are sucking through the straw, and the cup is only half full, with more people sticking their straws into the cup...

[Michaelangelica]

That depends on what the meaning of "run out" is. , you just may have to work harder. You may also find another box of cereal to refill the bowl.

around like methane hydrates found on the ocean floor.

 

Of course we have a whole thread on the tar fields in places like Canada which are traditional crude oil, albeit in a form that is only worthwhile when the price of crude rises above $40/bbl (and less over time as the investment in learning how to exploit it is amortized), and there's an unbelievable amount of this stuff.

 

So B is right: there's not really a good excuse for the crazy price of gas.

 

All I can say is that the really smart money is moving from oil to tulips. :)

 

Modern Popular Delusions, :eek:

Buffy

I just bought some end of season Tulips for $2 a packet rare, double yellow.

How do I get them into the gas tank?

 

Seriously, you are right Buffy.

The half -life of many oil fields is fast approaching

 

The Canadian tar fields are new to me. Isn't the price already over $40 a barrel? Tell me more.

 

Australia has a lot of natural gas but it is taxed (38c excise a litre +10%GST) just the same as petrol. We have some oil reserves (different oil, not suitable for petrol) and some yet to be exploited near Timor.

 

I can't understand why everyone is not more into bio-fuels.??

 

Leadership from Governments seems to be as rare as new oil fields.

[Jay-qu]

I think we pay something like 30cents of tax per liter.. rediculous, prices just bordering on $1.40

[Michaelangelica]

This is an interesting site

http://www.abc.net.au/science/expert/realexpert/endofoil/default.htm

 

A: 'Peak Oil' is that conceptual point in time beyond which the rate of oil production starts (and continues) to fall no matter how much money or effort is spent on finding new reserves. The fall need not be dramatic. We could stay close to plateau production for many years depending on improved recovery techniques and our ability to cost-effectively find new, smaller, fields.

 

There is continuing debate around the world as to whether global oil production has peaked already or is close to peaking. What is clear is that, for a variety of reasons, global exploration efforts have not succeeded in finding, and bringing into production, enough oil to replace that extracted over the past few years.

 

Also Shaking out the last drops in the barel

http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/s1674474.htm

[Buffy]

I just bought some end of season Tulips for $2 a packet rare, double yellow. How do I get them into the gas tank?

Get a still! They're an excellent--albeit expensive--biofuel! Just like corn!

 

The half -life of many oil fields is fast approaching

Has passed in many cases, but all that peak oil stuff points out that its not going to all of a sudden one day go from a huge number to zero. its a slow decline over time past "peak", and that aggregate peak might be close, but it has not shown up yet.

The Canadian tar fields are new to me. Isn't the price already over $40 a barrel?

That's the point, with oil at $70, there is an oil rush on in Canada right now. Total boomtown. See the thread on 3573, and it has been much talked about in the press. Just google "canadian tar sand"...

 

For a very long time people have underestimated climate changes, and as a result there are areas (like the polar regions) that really haven't been explored because it goes against the conventional wisdom to look in some of these places.

 

It also really needs to be noted that oil companies actually don't like to find "huge new supplies" because it instantly lowers prices in the market as the lemmings all say "oh no! oversupply! sell! sell! sell!".

I can't understand why everyone is not more into bio-fuels.??

Same problem as tar sand: it costs too much! In fact there are environmentalists who rage against corn-based ethanol because it uses more energy than it produces! However there are some very innovative technologies coming on line like from E3 Biofuels that are promising...

Leadership from Governments....

Oxymoron! Not possible! :rolleyes:

 

Save a dinosaur--burn corn,

Buffy

[Guest jamongo]

If the gasoline consumers would put their brains to use, they would declare specific days to not to purchase gasoline.

After a few of these "no gas days" the prices would start to drop.

That's that. Economics run the world and the people should run the economics.

[Buffy]

If the gasoline consumers would put their brains to use, they would declare specific days to not to purchase gasoline.

Tee hee! Unfortunately it does not require a large brain, just a thin pocketbook!

 

There's already been a huge (well, huge for accountants) change in gas consumption here in the states, and its resulted in about a 0.20-0.40 decline in prices over the last couple of months.

 

Boycotts of gas rarely work because there's no way to coordinate them and its not a very "optional" commodity. The oil companies are feeling some pain this summer, but its ameliorated by the still high prices...

 

Uh oh, better take that refinery off line,

Buffy

[Guest jamongo]

Any national organization could put together a plan to reduce gas consumption.

Does anyone remember the last digit in the license plate scheme?

Odd numbers gas up on Mondays, Wednesday, Fridays, Even numbers on Tuesday, Thursday, Saturdays.

It worked pretty well back in the early 70's, and it would work again. Sundays? Nobody buys gas.

I maintain that the people can control it if they've a will to do so.

The fact of the matter is, not many really care.

Example:

Say gas is selling at $3.00 a gallon.

Daddy wants to take his family on a 500 mile vacation. His car gets 20 miles to the gallon. Means he is going to burn 50 gallons of gasoline. (Round trip).

That comes down to $150.00. Say gas cost goes up to $3.25 a gallon. Now the cost is $162.50. That's $12.50 more. Daddy isn't going to call off the vacation for $12.50.

[Michaelangelica]

That's $12.50 more. Daddy isn't going to call off the vacation for $12.50.

 

It's not just personal use. Rising gas prices are inflationary.

It used to cost truck drivers about $800 in diesel to drive from Sydney to Brisbane now it costs about $2000. The cost of this goes on everything we use and wear and eat.

Many owner-driver truckies are going broke as they are locked into delivery contracts with big companies like Woolworths, Coles, etc

 

Some people are calling off trips.

Day tripping Tourism areas are suffering badly.

So badly that some are offering petrol vouchers if you stay in their area overnight

[Michaelangelica]

Get a still! They're an excellent--albeit expensive--biofuel! Just like corn!

Save a dinosaur--burn corn,

Buffy

Love too, apart from the fact that they are illegal, my liver would not cope!:cup:

[IDMclean]

I said it before, and I'll say it again.

 

Fuel consumption is currently selfishly decided. Originally Cars were introduced wide spread to justify the cost of building and maintaining the Interstate roads, for freight.

 

We are killing that industry with the small time consumers. (which now make up the majority.), in my humble opinion, cars are not a right. they are a responsibility, one which few hold in proper respect.

 

I think that, like food, and (basic needs, not fashion designer) clothes. should be made into a public concern. Collect into a single system.

 

Screw letting each person own a resource intensive tool. The road, and transportation, is a major public concearn.

 

Transportation should be supplanted with a new system, one in which combines the best of Cars, Trains, Buses and Freight. Payed for by tax dollars. Admittedly this system that I purpose would kill off many current jobs and companies, so obviously it should be implemented in half decade steps.

 

Our current Transportation solution will dry up QUICK. Cars can not sustain, not at the rate we are irresponsibly using them, and the fuel reserves up.

 

I envision a Pod type system. Implemented Federally, like the Interstate Highways, in fact I think that it should start from top down, first replacing the Interstate systems, and reallocate the current workforce (truckers, and interstate freight) to this system, then it should be implemented intrastate, then down to the IntraCounty, and finally to the Intracity.

 

The system I envision would get me from San Francisco to Las Angeles in under an hour. Would have a near 100% crash free rate, as the controls for the system would be integrated, computer controlled, and human supervised. The power needs would be minimal comparatively to that of a single person car delivery system, aka current system.

 

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