Taiwan and China.

[Ganoderma]

As many know its a touchy subject especially seeing how both are such huge exporters to the west. It is elections here in Taiwan in 2008 and the green party has royally screwed themselves by stealing money. Basically the green party is "pro-independence" (they cant say that though) the blue is pro china (in a nutshell). The elections are in the same year as the Olympics in china, what are your thoughts for the future? Not just of Taiwan but of the conflicts that may arise with the west, Europe, and other Asian countries.

[Boerseun]

This is a very interesting topic, indeed.

 

Although I'm sure that there's a global trend towards unification of economic blocs, which should result in a streamlining of politics, the China/Taiwan issue remains unique.

 

In your view, being in Taiwan, what would be the benefits of China and Taiwan reuniting? What would be the drawbacks? I honestly don't have much of an idea of what's going on in China, all I know is that the version of Communism they employ over there is far removed from what we Westerners have experienced with Communism through Cuba and the late USSR. And maybe China's rapid economic growth will make reunification irresistable to the Taiwannese.

 

But would it be a bad thing? Would it be a good thing? What would happen to the freedoms enjoyed by the Taiwannese, living under a freemarket Capitalist system? Would it also be a "special economic zone", with rights and priviledges not enjoyed by the mainland Chinese, like in Hong Kong? I suppose the Taiwannese will have to openly elect to join China, and if they willingly do it, they cannot insist on separate priviledges.

 

Interesting...

 

What do you think?

[Guest jamongo]

Taiwan will be rejoined with mainland China, probably in the same manner as Hong Kong.

It is inevitable. The people of Taiwan will realize the advantages of being united with a super-power.

The question is, "When will this happen?". I believe within the next five years.

[Boerseun]

Taiwan will be rejoined with mainland China, probably in the same manner as Hong Kong.

Hong Kong was returned to China after the end of a lease by the UK. They have known about the termination date of the lease for decades. I think the only reason the UK was willing to actually honour the termination date was the fact that China guaranteed several rights to the Hong Kong population, sepcifically economical and rights to private property.

Taiwan have always been "rebellious" in the sense that they have broken away from China by themselves - there wasn't any third-party imperial state involved. So, if Taiwan is to be reunited, would the Chinese have to guarantee any specific rights? If so, to whom?

[Guest jamongo]

I think the only reason the UK was willing to actually honour the termination date was the fact that China guaranteed several rights to the Hong Kong population, sepcifically economical and rights to private property.

 

I think the reason the lease contract was honored was if not, China would have marched their troops in and would have taken it over anyway. The guarantees agreed to by both parties just made the transition easier on the population.

 

When I wrote that Taiwan would probably be rejoined with China in the same manner, I meant that there would be the same type of guarantees. I believe that since it is going to happen, it should be accomplished with no bloodshed.

But, I state again, most of us reading this post will see the rejoining..

[Boerseun]

But, I state again, most of us reading this post will see the rejoining..

I agree - but if Ganoderma is still reading this here thread, maybe he can tell us what the support for reunification is like amongst the population? It probably wouldn't make too much of a difference in the long run, but it would be interesting, nonetheless, to understand the motivations for a whole country to give up its freedoms...

[Ganoderma]

Lets also remember that Taiwanese people ARE Chinese people....they all came over from china not that long ago....then got to suffer through Japanese rule (which was extremely horrible I am told).

 

First I should say that I am born and raised in Canada, so I can hardly speak for the people here. I have lived here for a year (in the country) and I am married to a Taiwanese women (I get a lot of interaction with all generations because of this). I teach English from ages 3 to 35 and here in the country it is well known they hate china.

 

it is basically a 2 party democracy here the green party being the pro Taiwan party (wanting democracy) and the blue party preferring the Chinese way. There are a lot of gray areas though, some like the idea of joining china in a similar regard as Hong Kong did, others (especially the older generations) flat out hate china. Some of the bigger issues Taiwan has with Chinas way of living is it is a communist nation, people here like democracy. Their standard of living is basically crap compared to here aside form the few wealthy large cities. Here in Taiwan the standard of living is not too much less than that of Canada and the US. medical here is not as good as Canada’s, but probably par with Americas in that you still need to pay for it (but not as expensive as US).

 

Schools here are quite good. In most areas people here speak Chinese and Taiwanese fluently (many city folk do not know much Taiwanese though), English is also a HUGE part of life. Most people here own their own house, car, pets, and send their kids to regular school and cram schools (this is VERY important. My village with 30,000 people has 1 elementary, one junior high, 1 senior high, 5 private kindergartens, and at least 6 cram schools (mostly English). What I am trying to say is the people here now live quite nicely and have a great standard of living.

 

The people who are pro china (definitely seem like the minority) are usually of the business type in the cities. Many large businesses move to china, due to cheaper labor. I think the fact that it is cheaper to manufacture there is making more and more people want to do business there rather than here. This is certainly having its effects here. From many people i speak with in the country, I have yet to meet one person who wants to be part of china. My brother in laws' wife is from china.

 

The other main problem (which is what is going to doom this country I think) is it needs to import almost everything. This island is tiny, 300km long I think and under 200 wide. It has 23million people... one of the main trading routes is the strait that runs through Malaysia and Indonesia (i forget the name). The big players (Japan and US mainly) are working to protect and granted malaysia/indo to protect the waters but kept much of it open. China is also now expressing interest in this area which if controlled by them could ruin Taiwan within the month (that number is from a magazine called "Taiwan Review" which states Taiwan has enough reserves to last 30 days...).

 

china also has a law stating that if Taiwan officially declares itself its own nation they will come here and take it. Period. So Taiwan has a sticky position that they cannot declare themselves a nation, and other countries are, understandably, cautious not to say anything of the sort.

 

Unfortunately i agree, it will happen. but it is DEFINATLY clear many people do NOT want to join them. At least until they become a more democratic fair union (i don’t need to go into detail about Chinas human rights history...).

 

 

One last thing*

The US, in 1987?, signed an agreement with Taiwan stating that if china does invade Taiwan the US will help out (how I don’t know). They used to be her ea fair bit helping with training and such. But the last 2 years Taiwan has seen a fair decrease in US interest. Last election the US sent very few crew to monitor things here (china always circles the island around elections with boats, presumably to scare the people).

 

My wife’s sister and her husband work for the air force here and seem to notice a large decrease in American interest.

 

Anyway this is all opinion, its hard to say what will happen….this country already has a very bloody history!

[Boerseun]

Thanks for the detailed reply, Ganoderma.

 

I think the cause of the slacking US interest in meddling with Chinese/Taiwan relations might be the growing business interest the US has in China, through off-shoring a lot of its manufacturing capacity to mainland China. I think the US is a bit wary of 'rocking the boat' in US/China relations, and will probably not do a lot to prevent unification.

 

That being said, is it the right thing to do to stand by while more than 20 million people lose their freedom to Communism? I still don't quite 'get' the Chinese version of Communism. It is not even remotely comparable to the Russian or Cuban versions. They have evolved in such different directions that I can't say it will be a good or a bad thing. I have no idea to what extend Chinese liberty goes, so I can't even say unification would be a 'bad' thing, as such...

[Ganoderma]

Put away they political bit for a second and think about the social bit. It would be somewhat the same as letting Mexico have the US in a way. Maybe a bad comparison...? But Taiwan would surely loose many of the freedoms they have fought for.

 

the political bit, i too have a hard time understanding what china is all about. They seem similar to US in that the government has their own agenda and they know they are big enough to get away with it. Business first I think is their modo.

 

Let’s look at it this way. You have one of your best business partners treating one of your other good business partners like crap. If you get involved you will likely loose one. Let’s face it, if china takes Taiwan, they still have china and they will still likely have Taiwan. Taiwan being forced to become china will likely just put a slight bump in production but ultimately make things cheaper here. There is minimum wage here and other labor laws that china does not have. If you side with Taiwan you may have them but you just royally pissed off your best business partner. Taiwan has a lot of thinking to do and it will be very difficult. With the current (green) party in now they are doing a good job of stealing taxpayers money and getting caught….the president is close to being kicked out of office now. Worse of all, the people are pissed off at them now (rightfully so).

 

I think the cause of the slacking US interest in meddling with Chinese/Taiwan relations might be the growing business interest the US has in China, through off-shoring a lot of its manufacturing capacity to mainland China. I think the US is a bit wary of 'rocking the boat' in US/China relations, and will probably not do a lot to prevent unification.

 

I agree with that 100%. China is the #1 manufacturer. In Europe china is #1 Taiwan is #4. In US china is #1 and Taiwan I think is 10 or so. Clearly china is financially the better choice. However this is not like Hong Kong, or even Quebec in Canada. Here people WANT their freedom and independence and mostly do NOT want china. Should something actually come of this (like a war, or aggression) it would certainly be a freedom fight. It will prove which countries truly care about democracy and freedom and which care more about money.

 

Unfortunately I do not expect much good to happen for Taiwan anytime soon. (i still keep a ticket back to Canada....just in case)

[Boerseun]

Should something actually come of this (like a war, or aggression) it would certainly be a freedom fight. It will prove which countries truly care about democracy and freedom and which care more about money.

Definitely.

 

If this comes to blows, it'll seperate the 'men from the boys', so to speak, and will prove where everybody's loyalties lie.

 

Interesting...

 

But do you think China will pursue this to such an extent?

What would they gain by that?

If they have to guarantee certain priviledges such as minimum wage and labour rights, then Taiwan would probably be more of a hassle than anything else, and be not nearly as productive as the rest of China...?

 

Or maybe China would just do this to announce to the rest of the World to start taking them seriously as an able contender for superpower status. This is, in my mind, the only reason why China has decided to invest a lot of time and effort into manned spaceflight. They probably didn't even think of the science side of it - merely an effort to fill the gap left by the USSR as the second superpower.

 

But you are right - if it comes to this, then we will see where the world's countries stand...

[Ganoderma]

At least at first I think its money, or was. Taiwan is no poor country....it has more money than most. They are for sure a big contender when it comes to manufacturing. This is why china wants Taiwan....it could make them a lot of cash. Everyone here also believes this is why they have not just come here and taken it. Sure they can bomb here and take it any day of the week. But it is the land and people who make the money so it is in their best interest to keep both in at least livable conditions.

 

This has gone on a while though. After the Japanese occupation they probably would have simply taken it had it not been for the Korean war. Hard to say though. Now the only thing stopping them in my mind is keeping face among all their rich buddy countries like the US and European nations. They don't need to be good, just look good. This is also playing on their egos a lot I think. They keep trying and trying to get support and other countries just avoid the discussion altogether. they know everyone is watching but no one is speaking.

 

The bigger china grows the more likely Taiwan will become a piece. Like said by others it will likely become a Hong Kong. the last thing other nations want to do is get involved, that is financially risky. In order to avoid choosing sides they will likely place a bunch of guidelines that china will sort of follow and everyone (except Taiwan) will be happy. that’s my guess.

 

the REALLY stupid thing is. Taiwan used to be in the UN. Once china joined Cheng keng shek (sp???) left. That guy, although he founded taiwan, was a complete whacko who seems quite hated here!

 

Although i doubt how big a concern it is, Taiwan is home to a LOT of foreigners. Its over half a million right now. i am not too sure how big a role that would play, probably none. but there are a lot of people from other countries.

 

Although things appear bad (and probably are really bad) there are some presumably good things. Shipping goods is getting easier between Taiwan and the mainland. not sure this is good however because that means Taiwan based companies are loosing lots of money. the trade laws are getting slightly more relaxed.

 

The economy here is also extremely different that that of the western world. In north America we may go to large lumber stores or clothing depots etc to buy stuff. Here it is very much family owned businesses. Clothing, mechanics, food, toys, office supplies, electronics, appliances etc etc are mostly sold through private owned business. Picture skinny long tall buildings side by side. Most businesses are in the bottom level while people live upstairs. In fact we own a school that is like this but we use the bottom 2 floors for the school and the top floor for us. Big business could easily disrupt the economy heavily. How that will come into effect I don’t know. There are still big stores like malls, Costco, Carrefour etc…but not many.

 

here are a couple googled stats:

area: 35,563 SQ KM

population: 22,894,384

 

here is a couple links:

 

Trade between Georgia and Taiwan: http://www.worldcityweb.com/home/ATL/statistics/view/43/ and http://www.worldcityweb.com/home/ATL/statistics/view/4/

 

ENGLISH TAIWAN GOVERNMENT SITE: http://english.www.gov.tw/e-Gov/index.jsp

 

english news in taiwan: http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/

 

tehre is a magazine called "Taiwan Reveiw", but it is really bias.

[Michaelangelica]

If China can invade a sovereign nation, such as Tibet, and perform racial and cultural genocide, they can do anything they want to anyone. The West will look the other way. No one can afford an economic hiccup in China.

China probably won't work against her own interests; but in the end she will do what she wants to Taiwan

Isn't there a lot of Taiwanese investment going into China?

Aren't their signs up in Chinese streets saying "China welcomes our Taiwanese Brothers"

Money might be what talks in the end; perhaps even diplomacy if you are an optimist

I wonder what Mr Sir? Chris Patton is doing at the moment (He has just written a new book on China, when I read it I may have an informed opinion!)

 

As for human rights it is very much a case of "The Pot calling the Kettle Black". The USA and its allies are hardly paragons of virtue in this arena. Democratic rights were only cobbled together in Hong Kong at the last moment by Britain thanks mainly to the ingenuity,intelligence and diplomacy of Chris Patton. The Brits had 100 years to do it and it was done in the last 10 years of their rule. Cynics would say they didn't want a few million Chinese turning up on their doorstep with British passports.

 

I was interested in your comment about the Green Party being discredited.

A similar thing happened here in recent state elections.

The Greens polled poorly in a state where environmental vandalism is rife and Ancient Old Growth Forests are being turned into origami. there was alot of scandlemongering.

After the elections it was discovered that Right-Wing 'Christian' groups were behind the Green's bad press.

 

My wife was appalled by the pollution in Taiwan when she visited some many years ago. She said the Chinese name for Taiwan "Beautiful Island" was ironic.

Has Taiwanese capitalism done much for the people of Taiwan?

(At least Mainland China has mandated for 20% "green" power)

 

Last week on the ABC Stock-market Report the reporter said the Third world (China India + ??etc) had finally passed the west in economic output.

Its all downhill for the west from here.

[InfiniteNow]

Lets also remember that Taiwanese people ARE Chinese people....

I've got a Tawainese friend, and she would kick you square in the nuts if she heard you say that.

[Freddy]

Under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 the US is no longer required to defend Taiwan as it was under the Mutual Defense Pact of 1954, abrogated in 1980, but retains the right to respond to any threat to Taiwan. See link below.

 

http://duckofminerva.blogspot.com/2005/11/us-taiwan-and-myth-of-obligation-to.html

[Ganoderma]

InfiniteNow: china is where they came from just like England and France is where Canadians came from. I made sure my wife didn’t read this one though!

 

Michaelangelica

 

Yes, many Taiwanese businesses are investing in china because they can make a lot more money. Labor is cheap there, it is not as cheap here. Simple numbers. There are human rights and labor laws here which are much more slack in china (meaning cheaper).

 

about the pot calling the kettle black. my fondness of china is about the same as that for the US and England, among others. Every country has its black areas. 2 wrongs don’t make a right.

 

The "green party" is not like that of America and many euro countries. It does not mean environmental at all, its just a name. They also go by DPP and the blue is KMT. And yes the pollution is GROSE! This is a very dirty little country indeed, but with the kind of industrialized land it has become there is really no other way. Think about the size of the island. It is very tiny! There are 23 million people and it is one of the biggest trading countries. That said it has now started to clean up its act. Unfortunately things like hydro power cant really work here because of the islands size. They do use nuclear however…. They are playing with wind and solar power as well. The Taiwan review magazine had an article on power in Taiwan. They said that about 2 million households switched to solar powered water heaters and that apparently stopped over 200 million tons of carbon into the atmosphere! There did not reference any sources on that one.

 

One of the main reasons is they want to be seen as a leader, and an independent responsible nation to the world. The dpp has only been in 1 or 2 terms (I forgot :D ) and they have started to do a lot to help clean up. Public transit is also getting much more support and there is a good working bus system and train system. They are also working on subways and rapid transit (aka bullet trains). This is very good mainly due to the fact there are so many cars and an unbelievable amount of scooters!!!

 

The biggest disadvantage to this country, in my opinion, is its lack of natural resources. They completely depend on imports to be able to continue. Agriculture is about the only real "natural" resource (can you call farming natural resource?) of any value. Technology and research is where they really seem to exceed.

 

 

thanks for the link freddy! i was unclear on that one.

[Michaelangelica]

 

about the pot calling the kettle black. my fondness of china is about the same as that for the US and England, among others. Every country has its black areas. 2 wrongs don’t make a right.

True.

 

I guess my point is that the Chinese are not going to reform as long as they see us abusing Human Rights and the Rule of Law.

We should be giving an example instead of complaining about Chinese Human Rights abuses

[InfiniteNow]

InfiniteNow: china is where they came from just like England and France is where Canadians came from. I made sure my wife didn’t read this one though!

:) Lol. Way to watch out and cover your butt! However, isn't that a bit like saying that I'm the same as a belgian/german/czech/irish person because that's "where I came from," even though I was born in the US? I don't so much agree with the logic you are using, but am admittedly not that familiar with the history of situation, just recognize lots of current tension as a result of that history.

 

 

Cheers. ;)