Pandemic Flu!

[Turtle]

Even though the 1918 pandemic was a terrible one, still not every person was affected. Not all the un-affected people could have avoided the virus altogether, so perhaps it would be ultimately usefull if you where as healthy as you could be and took supplements to make your immune system as strong as it could be thus giving it the best chance to fight it off naturally. This doesnt mean you would just walk around in crowded places once the pandemic has started, mearly that it gives you the best chance and surviving the initial 'surprise attack'.

 

You have failed to consider the collective effect of all the dead, especially when you aren't among them. You must bury the bodies -10's of millions mind you -, you must fill the jobs they vacated, you must house the orphans they left, you must pay the taxes they no longer owe, you must clean the houses they habited & pay to have them auctioned, etc..

A pandemic affects everyone. For such virulent viruses as Spanish Flu & Bird Flu, health is not a factor in preventing death. If you are human & get bird flu, you have only a 50% chance of not dying...period.:)

[Jay-qu]

sorry by affected I meant phyically from the virus. Yes surely there will be strains on the society.

 

Back in the 1918 pandemic 20% of the worlds population suffered from the virus to some extent, and 2.5-5% died. So while you are likely to have one of your family members suffer from it (1 in 5 people) on avg 1 in 4 of these families would have to bury a loved one..

 

clearly the situation is far more complicated, ie if a family member has it then they are likely to spread it to you aswell.. I was just trying to get a grasp of the avg number of people that suffered from and deid from the virus. Pretty crazy if you ask me!

[Turtle]

sorry by affected I meant phyically from the virus.

Here's an intreresting perspective on the spread of viruses:

http://hypography.com/forums/medical-science-news/5289-wheresgeorge-com-provides-breakthrough-predicting-spread.html?highlight=spread+of+epidemic

 

Back in the 1918 pandemic 20% of the worlds population suffered from the virus to some extent, and 2.5-5% died.

In terms of todays world population:

2.5% of 6 Billion = 150,000,000

5% of 6 Billion = 300,000,000

This assumes no change in virulance or rate & extent of the spread.

[Ganoderma]

Is there any chance you could scan what they mailed you?

 

The thread on anti-viral plants going on right now may also be interesting to those reading this thread. http://hypography.com/forums/medical-science/8124-anti-viral-plants.html

[Turtle]

Is there any chance you could scan what they mailed you?

 

A very good chance, yes.:esmoking: Click on images for full size:

 

 

[Racoon]

Combine a pandemic Flu with a pandemic drug-resistent Turberculosis outbreak! :cocktail:

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14951977/

 

SAN FRANCISCO - The worst forms of the killer tuberculosis bug have been gaining ground in the United States, alarming public health officials over imported drug-resistant strains of a disease that is mostly under control in this country.

 

Although the number of drug-resistant TB cases in the U.S. is small compared to developing nations, health officials here warn that visitors from other countries who are unaware of their infections are bringing over the deadliest mutations.

 

Often those with drug-resistant strains stop taking their medicine when they feel better but aren’t cured.

 

That’s what happened with Pich Chhieng, 61, a teacher who was infected in his native Cambodia and carried it with him to this country. He took medication for eight months but abruptly stopped because he ran out of money and was feeling much better.

 

He didn’t know until he was hospitalized while visiting family in Los Angeles that by neglecting his treatment he had allowed the disease to mutate, and the drug-resistant bacteria had overwhelmed his lungs.

 

“I knew it wasn’t cured yet, but I thought it wasn’t that strong,” said Chhieng, who has been forced to stay in California until he is cured. “I thought it was gone, and when it came back like that, I felt really bad. I wanted to kill myself.”

 

The majority of drug-resistant infections in the U.S. are brought in by legal visitors, and health officials argue that simply tightening immigration controls won’t solve the problem.

 

The only visitors to the U.S. who are screened for tuberculosis and other medical conditions are immigrant and refugee visa applicants, and TB experts say there is no easy way to screen the millions of tourists, workers and others who aren’t currently evaluated.

 

Worldwide, TB kills 2 million people each year, mostly in Africa and southeast Asia.

 

Of gravest concern is so-called “extensively drug-resistant” TB, which recently killed more than 50 people in South Africa. It’s been found in limited numbers in the U.S. — 74 reported cases since 1993.

 

The strain is nearly impossible to cure because it’s immune to the best first- and second-line TB drugs. It is as easily transmitted through the air as garden variety TB.

 

Health officials here also have been jolted by a spike in a milder but still-lethal form called “multi-drug resistant” TB.

 

That’s the strain afflicting Chhieng. It responds to more treatments but can cost up to $250,000 and take two years to cure.

 

The number of cases of that variety are multiplying worldwide, jumping more than 50 percent from about 273,000 in 2000 to 425,000 in 2004, according to a study published in August in the Journal of Infectious Diseas

[Jay-qu]

I also read about the black death the other day, man that plauge was crazy! A bacterial infection (from the bactirium Yersinia pestis) that was spread via flees! back in the 1300's they never would of had a clue where it was coming from, some blamed the jews and a lot where burnt at the stake, while others called it retribution from god.

 

25 million died in the first 5 years as it swept across europe, and it hung around for almost 300 years!

[Racoon]

I also read about the black death the other day, man that plauge was crazy! A bacterial infection (from the bactirium Yersinia pestis) that was spread via flees! back in the 1300's they never would of had a clue where it was coming from, some blamed the jews and a lot where burnt at the stake, while others called it retribution from god.

 

25 million died in the first 5 years as it swept across europe, and it hung around for almost 300 years!

 

A side note to that..

The Catholic religious rumors of the times during the "Black Death" were that Cats were Witches pets, and that they should be caught and killed... :)

and were.

 

The net result was a rat and flea explosion that helped spread the disease even more quickly...

One proof that belief and practice may adversely affect the result.

[Drip Curl Magic]

ick, this isn't the type of thread I was hoping to see after my panic last night.

 

Everyone around me is getting sick with the same weird throat funk.

 

And I happened to pick it up, too.

 

Swollen glands, semi-itchy throat, stuffy nose, slight fever.

 

And last night I started getting worried about a pandemic.

 

I was freaking out until I heard that one of my first friends to pick up the germ started feeling better.

 

But, who knows? Maybe this is the pandemic everyone speaks of. Maybe I'll die soon.

 

maybe I'm gonna be one of the first ones to go.

 

Although, I doubt it. Because I'm pretty sure that I have the same thing that all my friends have.

 

And a couple of them are starting to feel better.

 

I guess I'll just wait and see.

 

But until then, I'll definately read up on how to prepare myself.

[Michaelangelica]

You might like to try this quiz

A Bird Flu Quiz. (a little flawed- I take issue with question 7 and the wording of 8, which gives the wrong impression) but see what you think first.

 

http://www.abc.net.au/health/quizzes/birdflu/

[Drip Curl Magic]

You might like to try this quiz

A Bird Flu Quiz. (a little flawed- I take issue with question 7 and the wording of 8, which gives the wrong impression) but see what you think first.

 

http://www.abc.net.au/health/quizzes/birdflu/

 

 

Some of the answers weren't quite specific enough for my liking...

 

But I learned. thank you.

[Turtle]

ick, this isn't the type of thread I was hoping to see after my panic last night.

 

Everyone around me is getting sick with the same weird throat funk.

 

And I happened to pick it up, too.

 

Apparently we know very little - or at least too little - about how flu is transmitted according to a new article in Science magazine.

 

 

Experts believe the world is overdue for influenza pandemic. However, unless effective action against pandemic flu is taken now, we are in "dire straits," according to a paper published in the November 10 issue of Science. The articled titled, "Next Flu Pandemic: What to Do Until the Vaccine Arrives?

...

According to Dr. Morse, unfortunately, there are no readily accessible compendia of best practices or even comprehensive databases of community epidemiologic data, which might help to design the most effective interventions. "As the weather turns cold and the regular flu season is upon us, there is an opportunity to prepare and move ahead with community studies and clinical trials in humans."

 

http://www.physorg.com/news82390098.html

[Michaelangelica]

Honestly I do not believe we have to worry about another pandemic

 

In case anyone is interested, here's what the government is doing to prepare:

http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/tab1.html

 

^^^same website that Turtle posted, just more specific!^^^

 

Stockpilling anti-viral drugs looks impressive.

It looks like the government is doing something

BUT

We don't know, as yet, know what form a human version of bird flu would look like so all the stockpiles are useless until we know this.

WHEN and if

We know this then we can start preparing a vaccine and vacines don't last and take time to manufacture.

To produce enough for 4 billion people that takes a bit of time.

17 November 2005

Three to four times every century the world is gripped by an influenza pandemic.

The last one, in 1968 was minor, but still killed a million people around the world.

But the 1918 flu killed between 50 and 80 million. And like all flu, it came from birds.

The bird flu currently affecting people in South East Asia is not the same strain as that of 1918.

 

But for those who are infected, it’s even more lethal.

H5N1 refers to the surface coating of the virus.

What’s got people so worried is the H5 protein spike. It’s particularly effective at breaking into and out of cells. And that means it can cause total organ shutdown.

We haven’t seen anything as lethal as the H5N1 virus.

 

H5N1 has already proved to be a master of mutation

 

Now, whether that will be the same virus that may progress to a pandemic remains to be seen.

 

The problem with the antivirals like Tamilflu is that primarily they are short-lived. So if we had a pandemic that went on for 6, 12, 14 weeks you’d have to have numerous doses.

If they’re not delivered within 48 hours of the onset of symptoms then they’re not really very effective.

By the time you identify the strain and by the time you actually produce enough to deliver it to all the Australian community would take at least six months, maybe eight months, by which time the pandemic would be over.

 

More good news here:)

http://www.abconline.com.au/catalyst/stories/s1509219.htm

 

More good up-to-the minute links here 0.o

http://vein.library.usyd.edu.au/links/avianflu.html

 

Some promising research, and a nobel prize here, but still away to go :confused:

http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/2006/1754175.htm?tech

(Maybe a few good companies to buy shares in?)

RNA interference

Alnylam is working with Merck and Co, Medtronic, Novartis, Biogen Idec and the US government to develop RNAi to treat high cholesterol, respiratory syncytial virus, which can endanger infants, H5N1 avian influenza, the Ebola virus and some types of pain.

 

At least 23 different companies are focusing on RNA interference, either for therapy or research.

 

But analysts caution that technical problems and safety concerns remain to be resolved before RNAi therapies enter the medical vocabulary.

 

One problem faced by researchers is how to get the interfering RNA molecules into the body effectively, and different companies are taking different approaches

[Cedars]

I usually have alot of food on hand, so having to shop will be reduced.

 

But being as I am feeling a bit hostile towards people today, I think I would hang around the apple section of the grocery store, coughing into my hand and touching apples looking for the best ones for myself.

 

Just to spark fear and disgust in those persons forced to shop now that [insert resturant name] that they usually eat at has suddenly become such a risk to their wellbeing.

 

OK I am done hijacking thread.

[Turtle]

I usually have alot of food on hand, so having to shop will be reduced.

 

But being as I am feeling a bit hostile towards people today, I think I would hang around the apple section of the grocery store, coughing into my hand and touching apples looking for the best ones for myself.

 

Just to spark fear and disgust in those persons forced to shop now that [insert resturant name] that they usually eat at has suddenly become such a risk to their wellbeing.

 

OK I am done hijacking thread.

 

:doh: You bring a good point that I haven't seen mentioned, which is intentional spreading of the virus during a pandemic by people for no other reason than disgruntledness. I just watched 3 science shows on flu & pandemic and they dramatized the spread in a way that made everyone out as an innocent. Fundamentalist terrorism has nothing on a Monday shopper with the flu and a bad attitude. B) Let the buyer beware. B)

[Michaelangelica]

Human to human transmission of bird-flu has not been seen in epidemic proportions yet.

When this happens we will know what we are dealing with.

Until then we can all relax.

 

Just don't go kissing any chickens or wild birds.

 

Then again, human to human transmission may be sooner than we think

http://www.abc.net.au/rn/backgroundbriefing/stories/2006/1683733.htm#

AM program: The World Health Organisation says it has evidence that the deadly bird flu virus has mutated and has been passed from one person to another. It's the first evidence of human-to-human transmission of a mutated virus, and follows an investigation into the deaths of seven family members in Sumatra earlier this year. But despite ...

 

Ian Townsend: In one of those victims a 10-year-old boy, the virus appear to have changed, and he passed this mutated virus to his father. Despite this, the World Health Organisation says this mutation isn't helping it spread any further.

 

It does show though how quickly a pandemic could start.

If a human flu does evolve from bird flu, how dangerous a pandemic ends up being depends on how easily the virus spreads and how much it makes us sick.

[Boerseun]

Jay made a comment in an earlier post about the people in the 1300's not having any idea where the plague might have come from, and Turtle said in the previous post that disease could be spread intentionally.

 

Seems in ages gone by it was common practice to load infested corpses and festering carcasses in catapults, to be hurled over a besieged city's walls! :) The idea behind this was to spread disease in the city...

 

Biological warfare is clearly not a new thing...